nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Wilson

WR · NYJ vs CHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

20.2pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Collins

WR · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

18.9pts

market

Mod Conf

Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Garrett Wilson. Bench Nico Collins. Garrett Wilson leads at 20.2. Nico Collins is the first one out, 1.3 short.

Crowd: 97% of managers started Wilson, 64% started Collins.

Availability & news

  • Nico CollinsPractice: Limited

    Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Garrett WilsonStart
WR · NYJ vs CHI

Pros

  • Alpha target share35% target share
  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs WR
  • High floor13.0 floor
Nico CollinsBench
WR · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
  • High floor13.1 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilsonStart
CollinsBench
Projection20.218.9
Floor13.013.1
Ceiling23.723.2
Target share35%24%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A-A+
Implied team total20.025.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Wilson 5, Collins 19.

Collins (Practice: Limited): “Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Wilson 26.7, Collins 21.2 (PPR points).

Why Garrett Wilson

Start Garrett Wilson — projects 20.2, a favorable matchup vs CHI.

Garrett Wilson projects 20.2 points on a 13.0–23.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against CHI. Usage: targets / game at 8.4. Net: start Garrett Wilson this week.

Working for Wilson: Alpha target share (35% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs WR), High floor (13.0 floor).

Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Projection (20.2 vs 18.9); Ceiling (23.7 vs 23.2); Target share (35% vs 24%); Last 3 avg (19.1 vs 13.3); Boom rate (29% vs 13%); Targets / game (8.4 vs 8.0); Snap share (87% vs 77%).

Why Nico Collins

Sit Nico Collins — projects 18.9, a favorable matchup vs DAL.

Nico Collins projects 18.9 points on a 13.1–23.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 8.0. Net: bench Nico Collins this week.

Working for Collins: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), High floor (13.1 floor).

Where Collins leads the head-to-head: Floor (13.1 vs 13.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A-); Implied team total (25.8 vs 20.0); Last 5 avg (15.9 vs 12.5); vs season (-1.2 vs -3.5); Consistency (58% vs 41%); Bust rate (13% vs 29%); Red zone targets (19 vs 5).

Recent form

Garrett Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 4.3, 1, 13.9, 16.7, 26.7 (oldest to newest).

Nico Collins's last 5 games: PPR points 16.1, 23.5, 9.9, 8.7, 21.2 (oldest to newest).

Wilson has already beaten Collins's 18.9 projection in 1 of his 5; Collins has beaten Wilson's 20.2 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.

Nico Collins (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

What flips it

Wilson's edge is 1.3 points (20.2 to 18.9). Collins's ceiling (23.2) clears Wilson's projection, so a big game from Collins flips it. Wilson's floor (13) sits under Collins's projection, so a quiet game from Wilson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Garrett Wilson comparisons

More Nico Collins comparisons

This week's toughest calls