Hurts
QB · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
16.6pts
market
Smith
QB · NYJ vs CHI
Proj pts
16.2pts
market
Geno Smith or Jalen Hurts: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Jalen Hurts. Bench Geno Smith. Jalen Hurts leads at 16.6. Geno Smith is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Crowd: started Hurts 67% · Smith 36%
Highlights
Pros
- Rushing floor6.6 rush att/g
Cons
- Shaky floor9.2 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Jalen Hurts
Start Jalen Hurts — projects 16.6, an even matchup vs LA.
Jalen Hurts projects 16.6 points on a 13.9–24.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: pass attempts / game at 28.4. Net: Jalen Hurts is start this week.
Working for Hurts: Rushing floor (6.6 rush att/g).
Where Hurts leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.6 vs 16.2); Floor (13.9 vs 9.2); Ceiling (24.1 vs 17.8); Implied team total (20.3 vs 20.0); Last 3 avg (17.8 vs 17.0); Last 5 avg (16.8 vs 14.4); Consistency (63% vs 44%); Bust rate (12% vs 27%); Yards per attempt (7.1 vs 6.8); Touchdown rate (6% vs 4%); Rush attempts / game (6.6 vs 2.7); Rush yards / game (26.3 vs 7.3); Rushing production share (29% vs 6%); Implied total (20.3 vs 20.0).
Why Geno Smith
Sit Geno Smith — projects 16.2, an even matchup vs CHI, with a rising role.
Geno Smith projects 16.2 points on a 9.2–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CHI. Usage: pass attempts / game at 29.9. Net: Geno Smith is a bench this week.
Working against Smith: Shaky floor (9.2 floor).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Pass attempts (29.9 vs 28.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C); vs season (+1.7 vs -0.5); Boom rate (13% vs 12%); Pass attempts / game (29.9 vs 28.4); Completions / game (20.1 vs 18.4); Grade vs QB (recency weighted) (B vs C).
Recent form
Jalen Hurts's last 5 games: PPR points 21.4, 8.9, 24.7, 16.2, 12.6 (oldest to newest).
Geno Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 14, 7.1, 9.3, 15.6, 26 (oldest to newest).
Hurts has already beaten Smith's 16.2 projection in 2 of his 5; Smith has beaten Hurts's 16.6 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Jalen Hurts (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.
Geno Smith (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Hurts's edge is 0.4 points (16.6 to 16.2). Smith's ceiling (17.8) clears Hurts's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Hurts's floor (13.9) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Hurts flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.