Dulcich
TE · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Greg Dulcich or Gunnar Helm: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Greg Dulcich. Bench Gunnar Helm. Greg Dulcich leads at 8.4. Gunnar Helm is the first one out, 0.9 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
- Low team total14.0 team total
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Dulcich 11%, Helm 31%.
Latest game on the card: Dulcich 10.5, Helm 3.4 (PPR points).
Why Greg Dulcich
Start Greg Dulcich — projects 8.4, a tough matchup vs MIN.
Greg Dulcich projects 8.4 points on a 4.9–9.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Greg Dulcich this week.
Working against Dulcich: Thin volume (3.7 targets/g), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Dulcich leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 7.6); Floor (4.9 vs 3.2); Target share (15% vs 11%); Last 3 avg (6.0 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 3.5); vs season (-0.9 vs -2.5); Consistency (47% vs 34%); Bust rate (11% vs 31%); Targets / game (3.7 vs 3.4).
Why Gunnar Helm
Sit Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: bench Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (10.1 vs 9.8); Implied team total (16.0 vs 14.0); Boom rate (19% vs 11%); Snap share (53% vs 44%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (13% vs 9%); Implied total (16.0 vs 14.0).
Recent form
Greg Dulcich's last 4 games: PPR points 7.1, 3.8, 3.7, 10.5 (oldest to newest).
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
Dulcich has already beaten Helm's 7.6 projection in 1 of his 4; Helm has beaten Dulcich's 8.4 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Greg Dulcich (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Dulcich's edge is 0.8 points (8.4 to 7.6). Helm's ceiling (10.1) clears Dulcich's projection, so a big game from Helm flips it. Dulcich's floor (4.9) sits under Helm's projection, so a quiet game from Dulcich flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)