Dulcich
TE · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Greg Dulcich or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Greg Dulcich. Bench T.J. Hockenson. Greg Dulcich leads at 8.4. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 1.6 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
- Low team total14.0 team total
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Below your start line1.6 pts short
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Dulcich 11%, Hockenson 20%.
Latest game on the card: Dulcich 10.5, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Greg Dulcich
Start Greg Dulcich — projects 8.4, a tough matchup vs MIN.
Greg Dulcich projects 8.4 points on a 4.9–9.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Greg Dulcich this week.
Working against Dulcich: Thin volume (3.7 targets/g), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Dulcich leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 6.9); Bust rate (11% vs 20%).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Hockenson: Below your start line (1.6 pts short).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.1 vs 4.9); Ceiling (11.4 vs 9.8); Target share (16% vs 15%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D); Implied team total (24.5 vs 14.0); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 6.0); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 6.3); vs season (-0.2 vs -0.9); Consistency (48% vs 47%); Boom rate (13% vs 11%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.7); Snap share (78% vs 44%); Red zone targets (11 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 9%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (A vs D); Implied total (24.5 vs 14.0).
Recent form
Greg Dulcich's last 4 games: PPR points 7.1, 3.8, 3.7, 10.5 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Dulcich has already beaten Hockenson's 6.9 projection in 2 of his 4; Hockenson has beaten Dulcich's 8.4 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Greg Dulcich (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Dulcich's edge is 1.5 points (8.4 to 6.9). Hockenson's ceiling (11.4) clears Dulcich's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Dulcich's floor (4.9) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Dulcich flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)