Pitts
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
8.9pts
market
Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Gunnar Helm or Kyle Pitts: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyle Pitts. Bench Gunnar Helm. Kyle Pitts leads at 8.9. Gunnar Helm is the first one out, 1.3 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage23% target share
- Spike upside17.8 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.3 floor
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Pitts 1.3, Helm 4.5.
Latest game on the card: Pitts 1.5, Helm 3.4 (PPR points).
Why Kyle Pitts
Start Kyle Pitts — projects 8.9, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.
Kyle Pitts projects 8.9 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: start Kyle Pitts this week.
Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).
Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).
Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.9 vs 7.6); Floor (3.3 vs 3.2); Ceiling (17.8 vs 10.1); Target share (23% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs D); Implied team total (22.8 vs 16.0); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 3.5); Bust rate (29% vs 31%); Targets / game (6.9 vs 3.4); Snap share (88% vs 53%); Red zone targets (13 vs 8); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 13%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (C vs D); Implied total (22.8 vs 16.0).
Why Gunnar Helm
Sit Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: bench Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Last 3 avg (4.5 vs 1.3); vs season (-2.5 vs -7.9); Consistency (34% vs 23%); Boom rate (19% vs 6%).
Recent form
Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
Pitts has already beaten Helm's 7.6 projection in 1 of his 5; Helm has beaten Pitts's 8.9 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Pitts's edge is 1.3 points (8.9 to 7.6). Helm's ceiling (10.1) clears Pitts's projection, so a big game from Helm flips it. Pitts's floor (3.3) sits under Helm's projection, so a quiet game from Pitts flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)