Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Gunnar Helm or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Gunnar Helm over T.J. Hockenson by 0.7. Gunnar Helm leads at 7.6. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Helm 3.5, Hockenson 6.9.
Latest game on the card: Helm 3.4, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Gunnar Helm
Start Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: start Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 6.9); Boom rate (19% vs 13%).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.1 vs 3.2); Ceiling (11.4 vs 10.1); Target share (16% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D); Implied team total (24.5 vs 16.0); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 3.5); vs season (-0.2 vs -2.5); Consistency (48% vs 34%); Bust rate (20% vs 31%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.4); Snap share (78% vs 53%); Red zone targets (11 vs 8); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 13%).
Recent form
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Helm has already beaten Hockenson's 6.9 projection in 0 of his 5; Hockenson has beaten Helm's 7.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Helm's edge is 0.7 points (7.6 to 6.9). Hockenson's ceiling (11.4) clears Helm's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Helm's floor (3.2) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Helm flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)