Davis
RB · NYJ vs CHI
Proj pts
9.8pts
market
Johnson
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
8.5pts
market
Isaiah Davis or Kaleb Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Isaiah Davis. Bench Kaleb Johnson. Isaiah Davis leads at 9.8. Kaleb Johnson is the first one out, 1.3 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside30% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Big-play upside40% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back4% of touches
- Shaky floor0.4 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Davis 14%, Johnson 2%.
Latest game on the card: Davis 0, Johnson 2.6 (PPR points).
Why Isaiah Davis
Start Isaiah Davis — projects 9.8, an even matchup vs CHI, but the role is cooling.
Isaiah Davis projects 9.8 points on a 1.5–11.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CHI. Usage: carries / game at 2.7. Net: start Isaiah Davis this week.
Working for Davis: Big-play upside (30% boom weeks).
Working against Davis: Committee back (8% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Davis leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.8 vs 8.5); Floor (1.5 vs 0.4); Ceiling (11.4 vs 10.0); Touch share (8% vs 4%); Opportunity score (4.3 vs 2.1); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 1.3); vs season (+1.7 vs +0.1); Consistency (14% vs 2%); Bust rate (40% vs 60%); Touches / game (4.0 vs 2.9); Target share (6% vs 1%); Yards per carry (5.5 vs 2.5); Snap share (28% vs 9%); Red zone carries (9 vs 4).
Why Kaleb Johnson
Sit Kaleb Johnson — projects 8.5, an even matchup vs TB, with a rising role.
Kaleb Johnson projects 8.5 points on a 0.4–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 2.8. Net: bench Kaleb Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (4% of touches), Shaky floor (0.4 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (21.0 vs 20.0); Last 3 avg (1.9 vs 1.3); Boom rate (40% vs 30%); Carries / game (2.8 vs 2.7).
Recent form
Isaiah Davis's last 5 games: PPR points 13.5, 10, 4, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Kaleb Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 0.4, 0.4, 0, 3.2, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Davis has already beaten Johnson's 8.5 projection in 2 of his 5; Johnson has beaten Davis's 9.8 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Isaiah Davis (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.
Kaleb Johnson (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Davis's edge is 1.3 points (9.8 to 8.5). Johnson's ceiling (10) clears Davis's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Davis's floor (1.5) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Davis flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
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