Davis
RB · NYJ vs CHI
Proj pts
9.8pts
market
Lloyd
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
9.7pts
market
Isaiah Davis or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Isaiah Davis over MarShawn Lloyd by 0.1. Isaiah Davis leads at 9.8. MarShawn Lloyd is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside30% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back1% of touches
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Davis 8%, Lloyd 1%.
Latest game on the card: Davis 0, Lloyd 3.8 (PPR points).
Why Isaiah Davis
Start Isaiah Davis — projects 9.8, an even matchup vs CHI, but the role is cooling.
Isaiah Davis projects 9.8 points on a 1.5–11.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CHI. Usage: carries / game at 2.7. Net: start Isaiah Davis this week.
Working for Davis: Big-play upside (30% boom weeks).
Working against Davis: Committee back (8% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Davis leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.8 vs 9.7); Touch share (8% vs 1%); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 4.7); vs season (+1.7 vs +0.0); Boom rate (30% vs 0%); Yards per carry (5.5 vs 2.5); Snap share (28% vs 14%); Red zone carries (9 vs 0).
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Sit MarShawn Lloyd — projects 9.7, an even matchup vs TB.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 9.7 points on a 3.6–12.3 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: bench MarShawn Lloyd this week.
Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.6 vs 1.5); Ceiling (12.3 vs 11.4); Opportunity score (5.3 vs 4.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (21.0 vs 20.0); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 1.3); Consistency (100% vs 14%); Bust rate (0% vs 40%); Carries / game (6.0 vs 2.7); Touches / game (7.0 vs 4.0); Target share (8% vs 6%).
Recent form
Isaiah Davis's last 5 games: PPR points 13.5, 10, 4, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
Davis has already beaten Lloyd's 9.7 projection in 2 of his 5; Lloyd has beaten Davis's 9.8 in 0 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Isaiah Davis (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.
MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Davis's edge is 0.1 points (9.8 to 9.7). Lloyd's ceiling (12.3) clears Davis's projection, so a big game from Lloyd flips it. Davis's floor (1.5) sits under Lloyd's projection, so a quiet game from Davis flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
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