Dowdle
RB · PIT vs CLE
Proj pts
9.9pts
opportunity
Davis
RB · NYJ vs CHI
Proj pts
9.8pts
market
Isaiah Davis or Rico Dowdle: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Rico Dowdle over Isaiah Davis by 0.1. Rico Dowdle leads at 9.9. Isaiah Davis is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Availability & news
Rico DowdlePractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside30% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is carries / game: Dowdle 13.9, Davis 2.7.
Dowdle is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Dowdle 6.4, Davis 0 (PPR points).
Why Rico Dowdle
Start Rico Dowdle — projects 9.9, an even matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Rico Dowdle projects 9.9 points on a 7.7–14.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CLE. Usage: carries / game at 13.9. Net: start Rico Dowdle this week.
Where Dowdle leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.9 vs 9.8); Floor (7.7 vs 1.5); Ceiling (14.1 vs 11.4); Touch share (35% vs 8%); Opportunity score (13.0 vs 4.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (20.5 vs 20.0); Last 3 avg (5.2 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (6.6 vs 5.5); Consistency (26% vs 14%); Bust rate (29% vs 40%); Carries / game (13.9 vs 2.7); Touches / game (16.2 vs 4.0); Target share (11% vs 6%); Snap share (56% vs 28%); Goal line carries (9 vs 0); Red zone carries (35 vs 9).
Why Isaiah Davis
Sit Isaiah Davis — projects 9.8, an even matchup vs CHI, but the role is cooling.
Isaiah Davis projects 9.8 points on a 1.5–11.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CHI. Usage: carries / game at 2.7. Net: bench Isaiah Davis this week.
Working for Davis: Big-play upside (30% boom weeks).
Working against Davis: Committee back (8% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Davis leads the head-to-head: vs season (+1.7 vs -3.1); Boom rate (30% vs 18%); Yards per carry (5.5 vs 4.6).
Recent form
Rico Dowdle's last 5 games: PPR points 8.3, 9.3, 5, 4.1, 6.4 (oldest to newest).
Isaiah Davis's last 5 games: PPR points 13.5, 10, 4, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Dowdle has already beaten Davis's 9.8 projection in 0 of his 5; Davis has beaten Dowdle's 9.9 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Rico Dowdle (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Isaiah Davis (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Dowdle's edge is 0.1 points (9.9 to 9.8). Davis's ceiling (11.4) clears Dowdle's projection, so a big game from Davis flips it. Dowdle's floor (7.7) sits under Davis's projection, so a quiet game from Dowdle flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Rico Dowdle comparisons
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Rico Dowdle or Travis Etienne9.9 · 10.5
- Emanuel Wilson or Rico Dowdle11.5 · 9.9
This week's toughest calls
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- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- Omarion Hampton or Woody Marks12.2 · 12.2
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