Croskey-Merritt
RB · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
13.5pts
market
Hampton
RB · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
12.1pts
market
Jacory Croskey-Merritt or Omarion Hampton: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Bench Omarion Hampton. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads at 13.5. Omarion Hampton is the first one out, 1.4 short.
Crowd: started Croskey-Merritt 31% · Hampton 74%
Highlights
Cons
- Committee back24% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Pros
- High floor11.9 floor
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Low team total17.8 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt — projects 13.5, an even matchup vs IND.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects 13.5 points on a 5.1–16.3 range. The matchup grades as neutral against IND. Usage: carries / game at 10.3. Net: Jacory Croskey-Merritt is start this week.
Working against Croskey-Merritt: Committee back (24% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Croskey-Merritt leads the head-to-head: Projection (13.5 vs 12.1); Touch share (24% vs 19%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C- vs D); Implied team total (22.0 vs 17.8); vs season (+1.5 vs -2.2); Boom rate (23% vs 22%); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 4.4); Goal line carries (13 vs 8); Red zone carries (32 vs 26); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (C- vs D); Implied total (22.0 vs 17.8).
Why Omarion Hampton
Sit Omarion Hampton — projects 12.1, a tough matchup vs SEA, but the role is cooling.
Omarion Hampton projects 12.1 points on a 11.9–23.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against SEA. Usage: carries / game at 13.8. Net: Omarion Hampton is a bench this week.
Working for Hampton: High floor (11.9 floor).
Working against Hampton: Committee back (19% of touches), Low team total (17.8 team total).
Where Hampton leads the head-to-head: Floor (11.9 vs 5.1); Ceiling (23.2 vs 16.3); Opportunity score (14.4 vs 7.7); Last 3 avg (10.5 vs 7.9); Last 5 avg (13.6 vs 9.8); Consistency (52% vs 20%); Bust rate (11% vs 38%); Carries / game (13.8 vs 10.3); Touches / game (17.3 vs 10.8); Target share (12% vs 3%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (14.4 vs 7.7); Snap share (63% vs 40%).
Recent form
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's last 5 games: PPR points 22.5, 2.9, 12.6, 5.8, 5.3 (oldest to newest).
Omarion Hampton's last 5 games: PPR points 16.5, 20, 8.3, 17.5, 5.6 (oldest to newest).
Croskey-Merritt has already beaten Hampton's 12.1 projection in 2 of his 5; Hampton has beaten Croskey-Merritt's 13.5 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.0, spread +3.5.
Omarion Hampton (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
What flips it
Croskey-Merritt's edge is 1.4 points (13.5 to 12.1). Hampton's ceiling (23.2) clears Croskey-Merritt's projection, so a big game from Hampton flips it. Croskey-Merritt's floor (5.1) sits under Hampton's projection, so a quiet game from Croskey-Merritt flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Opportunity score
- Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Touch share trend
- The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Vacated touches
- Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.