Ferguson
TE · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.1pts
market
Pitts
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
8.9pts
market
Jake Ferguson or Kyle Pitts: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Jake Ferguson. Bench Kyle Pitts. Jake Ferguson leads at 10.1. Kyle Pitts is the first one out, 1.2 short.
Crowd: started Ferguson 53%
Highlights
Pros
- Red-zone role1.5 RZ targets/g
Cons
- Shaky floor4.5 floor
Pros
- Alpha TE usage23% target share
- Spike upside17.8 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Jake Ferguson
Start Jake Ferguson — projects 10.1, an even matchup vs HOU, with a rising role.
Jake Ferguson projects 10.1 points on a 4.5–12.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 6.0. Net: Jake Ferguson is start this week.
Working for Ferguson: Red-zone role (1.5 RZ targets/g).
Working against Ferguson: Shaky floor (4.5 floor).
Where Ferguson leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.1 vs 8.9); Floor (4.5 vs 3.3); Implied team total (23.0 vs 22.8); Last 3 avg (10.7 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (8.3 vs 4.1); vs season (+0.0 vs -7.9); Consistency (40% vs 23%); Boom rate (24% vs 6%); Bust rate (24% vs 29%); Red zone targets (25 vs 13); Touchdown dependence (25% vs 14%); Implied total (23.0 vs 22.8).
Why Kyle Pitts
Sit Kyle Pitts — projects 8.9, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.
Kyle Pitts projects 8.9 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: Kyle Pitts is a bench this week.
Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).
Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).
Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (17.8 vs 12.2); Target share (23% vs 16%); Targets / game (6.9 vs 6.0); Snap share (88% vs 67%).
Recent form
Jake Ferguson's last 5 games: PPR points 7.6, 1.5, 2.6, 20.3, 9.3 (oldest to newest).
Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Ferguson has already beaten Pitts's 8.9 projection in 2 of his 5; Pitts has beaten Ferguson's 10.1 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Jake Ferguson (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread +2.5.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Ferguson's edge is 1.2 points (10.1 to 8.9). Pitts's ceiling (17.8) clears Ferguson's projection, so a big game from Pitts flips it. Ferguson's floor (4.5) sits under Pitts's projection, so a quiet game from Ferguson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.