Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Jonnu Smith or Noah Gray: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Noah Gray over Jonnu Smith by 0.1. Noah Gray leads at 5.1. Jonnu Smith is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Gray 3, Smith 8.
Latest game on the card: Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Noah Gray
Start Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: start Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.1 vs 5.0); Implied team total (26.0 vs 21.5); Consistency (29% vs 24%); Boom rate (36% vs 24%).
Why Jonnu Smith
Sit Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: bench Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Floor (1.5 vs 1.2); Ceiling (8.8 vs 6.0); Target share (11% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs D-); Last 3 avg (4.0 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (4.9 vs 2.8); vs season (+0.7 vs -0.1); Bust rate (29% vs 43%); Targets / game (3.2 vs 2.6); Red zone targets (8 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 0%).
Recent form
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Gray has already beaten Smith's 5 projection in 1 of his 3; Smith has beaten Gray's 5.1 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Gray's edge is 0.1 points (5.1 to 5). Smith's ceiling (8.8) clears Gray's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Gray's floor (1.2) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Gray flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)