Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
5.8pts
opportunity
Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Jonnu Smith or Oronde Gadsden II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Oronde Gadsden II over Jonnu Smith by 0.8. Oronde Gadsden II leads at 5.8. Jonnu Smith is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Gadsden 15, Smith 8.
Latest game on the card: Gadsden 0, Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Start Oronde Gadsden II — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 5.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.0); Floor (2.8 vs 1.5); Ceiling (10.0 vs 8.8); Target share (14% vs 11%); Last 3 avg (5.0 vs 4.0); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 4.9); vs season (+0.8 vs +0.7); Targets / game (4.6 vs 3.2); Snap share (63% vs 53%); Red zone targets (15 vs 8).
Why Jonnu Smith
Sit Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: bench Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B); Implied team total (21.5 vs 17.8); Consistency (24% vs 17%); Boom rate (24% vs 13%); Bust rate (29% vs 47%).
Recent form
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Gadsden has already beaten Smith's 5 projection in 3 of his 5; Smith has beaten Gadsden's 5.8 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Gadsden's edge is 0.8 points (5.8 to 5). Smith's ceiling (8.8) clears Gadsden's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Gadsden's floor (2.8) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Gadsden flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)