Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Jonnu Smith or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jonnu Smith over Theo Johnson by 0.5. Jonnu Smith leads at 5.0. Theo Johnson is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Smith 4.0, Johnson 0.6.
Latest game on the card: Smith 3.6, Johnson 0 (PPR points).
Why Jonnu Smith
Start Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: start Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.0 vs 4.5); Last 3 avg (4.0 vs 0.6); Last 5 avg (4.9 vs 3.6); vs season (+0.7 vs -3.1); Boom rate (24% vs 20%).
Why Theo Johnson
Sit Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 1.5); Ceiling (11.3 vs 8.8); Target share (17% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs A-); Consistency (34% vs 24%); Bust rate (20% vs 29%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 3.2); Snap share (87% vs 53%); Red zone targets (14 vs 8); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 14%).
Recent form
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Smith has already beaten Johnson's 4.5 projection in 2 of his 5; Johnson has beaten Smith's 5 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Smith's edge is 0.5 points (5 to 4.5). Johnson's ceiling (11.3) clears Smith's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Smith's floor (1.5) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Smith flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)