Black
RB · SF vs DEN
Proj pts
6.9pts
market
Allgeier
RB · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
6.5pts
market
Kaelon Black or Tyler Allgeier: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Kaelon Black over Tyler Allgeier by 0.4. Kaelon Black leads at 6.9. Tyler Allgeier is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Big-play upside50% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Shaky floor4.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Black 4, Allgeier 32.
Latest game on the card: Allgeier 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Kaelon Black
Start Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.
Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: start Kaelon Black this week.
Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).
Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Black leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 6.5); Implied team total (25.3 vs 23.0); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.7); Consistency (48% vs 40%); Boom rate (50% vs 23%); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 3.6).
Why Tyler Allgeier
Sit Tyler Allgeier — projects 6.5, a run-funnel matchup vs NYG.
Tyler Allgeier projects 6.5 points on a 4.3–8.9 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYG. Usage: carries / game at 8.4. Net: bench Tyler Allgeier this week.
Working for Allgeier: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).
Working against Allgeier: Committee back (19% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).
Where Allgeier leads the head-to-head: Opportunity score (6.7 vs 6.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs F); Last 3 avg (5.9 vs 4.1); Last 5 avg (4.6 vs 4.1); Bust rate (31% vs 50%); Carries / game (8.4 vs 8.3); Touches / game (9.2 vs 8.7); Target share (3% vs 2%); Goal line carries (10 vs 0); Red zone carries (32 vs 4).
Recent form
Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Tyler Allgeier's last 5 games: PPR points 2.3, 2.9, 9, 3.9, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Black has already beaten Allgeier's 6.5 projection in 1 of his 3; Allgeier has beaten Black's 6.9 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.
Tyler Allgeier (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)