nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Allgeier

RB · ARI vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.5pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Gainwell

RB · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.4pts

opportunity

Lower Conf

Kenny Gainwell or Tyler Allgeier: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Tyler Allgeier over Kenny Gainwell by 0.1. Tyler Allgeier leads at 6.5. Kenny Gainwell is the first one out, 0.0 short.

Allgeier and Gainwell are effectively tied on projection — Allgeier gets the start on the tie-break.

Availability & news

  • Kenny Gainwell

    Gainwell turned three carries into minus-4 yards and added two catches (on five targets) for 14 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings. He also returned six kickoffs for 160 yards and added a tackle.(rotowire, Sep 28, 2026)

Highlights

Tyler AllgeierStart
RB · ARI vs NYG

Pros

  • Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB

Cons

  • Committee back19% of touches
  • Shaky floor4.3 floor
Kenny GainwellBench
RB · TB vs GB

Pros

  • Pass-game role5.0 targets/g
  • Spike upside20.8 ceiling

Cons

  • Committee back24% of touches
  • Low team total18.0 team total

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

AllgeierStart
GainwellBench
Projection6.56.4
Floor4.35.9
Ceiling8.920.8
Touch share19%24%
Opportunity score6.711.4
Matchup grade(recency weighted)AC+
Implied team total23.018.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Allgeier 3%, Gainwell 16%.

Gainwell: “Gainwell turned three carries into minus-4 yards and added two catches (on five targets) for 14 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings. He also returned six kickoffs for 160 yards and added a tackle.” — RotoWire, Sep 28, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Allgeier 4.9, Gainwell 3 (PPR points).

Why Tyler Allgeier

Start Tyler Allgeier — projects 6.5, a run-funnel matchup vs NYG.

Tyler Allgeier projects 6.5 points on a 4.3–8.9 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYG. Usage: carries / game at 8.4. Net: start Tyler Allgeier this week.

Working for Allgeier: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).

Working against Allgeier: Committee back (19% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).

Where Allgeier leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.5 vs 6.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C+); Implied team total (23.0 vs 18.0); Last 3 avg (5.9 vs 3.4); vs season (-1.7 vs -4.6); Consistency (40% vs 34%); Carries / game (8.4 vs 6.7); Goal line carries (10 vs 9); Red zone carries (32 vs 23).

Why Kenny Gainwell

Sit Kenny Gainwell — projects 6.4, an even matchup vs GB, but the role is cooling.

Kenny Gainwell projects 6.4 points on a 5.9–20.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: carries / game at 6.7. Net: bench Kenny Gainwell this week.

Working for Gainwell: Pass-game role (5.0 targets/g), Spike upside (20.8 ceiling).

Working against Gainwell: Committee back (24% of touches), Low team total (18.0 team total).

Where Gainwell leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.9 vs 4.3); Ceiling (20.8 vs 8.9); Touch share (24% vs 19%); Opportunity score (11.4 vs 6.7); Last 5 avg (7.7 vs 4.6); Boom rate (24% vs 23%); Bust rate (29% vs 31%); Touches / game (11.0 vs 9.2); Target share (16% vs 3%); Yards per carry (4.7 vs 3.6); Snap share (50% vs 30%).

Recent form

Tyler Allgeier's last 5 games: PPR points 2.3, 2.9, 9, 3.9, 4.9 (oldest to newest).

Kenny Gainwell's last 5 games: PPR points 6.8, 21.4, 2.8, 4.5, 3 (oldest to newest).

Allgeier has already beaten Gainwell's 6.4 projection in 1 of his 5; Gainwell has beaten Allgeier's 6.5 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Tyler Allgeier (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.

Kenny Gainwell (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Allgeier's edge is 0.1 points (6.5 to 6.4). Gainwell's ceiling (20.8) clears Allgeier's projection, so a big game from Gainwell flips it. Allgeier's floor (4.3) sits under Gainwell's projection, so a quiet game from Allgeier flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

This week's toughest calls