Jackson
QB · BAL vs TEN
Proj pts
17.9pts
market
Lawrence
QB · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
17.8pts
market
Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Lamar Jackson over Trevor Lawrence by 0.1. Lamar Jackson leads at 17.9. Trevor Lawrence is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Crowd: 90% of managers started Jackson, 75% started Lawrence.
Availability & news
Lamar JacksonPractice: Limited
Jackson (back) was a full participant at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Rushing floor5.2 rush att/g
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs QB
Cons
- Shaky floor8.7 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs QB
- Spike upside29.4 ceiling
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Jackson 23%, Lawrence 12%.
Jackson (Practice: Limited): “Jackson (back) was a full participant at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Jackson 20.4, Lawrence 19.8 (PPR points).
Why Lamar Jackson
Start Lamar Jackson — projects 17.9, a favorable matchup vs TEN.
Lamar Jackson projects 17.9 points on a 8.7–20.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TEN. Usage: pass attempts / game at 23.2. Net: start Lamar Jackson this week.
Working for Jackson: Rushing floor (5.2 rush att/g), High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs QB).
Working against Jackson: Shaky floor (8.7 floor).
Where Jackson leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.9 vs 17.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B+); Implied team total (27.0 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (20.1 vs 17.3); vs season (+2.7 vs -3.5); Boom rate (23% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (8.4 vs 7.2); Touchdown rate (7% vs 5%); Rush attempts / game (5.2 vs 4.8); Rush yards / game (26.8 vs 21.1).
Why Trevor Lawrence
Sit Trevor Lawrence — projects 17.8, a favorable matchup vs CIN.
Trevor Lawrence projects 17.8 points on a 15.0–29.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against CIN. Usage: pass attempts / game at 32.9. Net: bench Trevor Lawrence this week.
Working for Lawrence: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs QB), Spike upside (29.4 ceiling).
Where Lawrence leads the head-to-head: Floor (15.0 vs 8.7); Ceiling (29.4 vs 20.8); Pass attempts (32.9 vs 23.2); Last 5 avg (19.7 vs 17.1); Consistency (57% vs 49%); Bust rate (12% vs 23%); Pass attempts / game (32.9 vs 23.2); Completions / game (20.1 vs 14.8); Rushing production share (26% vs 21%).
Recent form
Lamar Jackson's last 5 games: PPR points 4.7, 20.4, 25, 14.8, 20.4 (oldest to newest).
Trevor Lawrence's last 5 games: PPR points 23.1, 23.3, 26.1, 6.2, 19.8 (oldest to newest).
Jackson has already beaten Lawrence's 17.8 projection in 3 of his 5; Lawrence has beaten Jackson's 17.9 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Lamar Jackson (BAL) faces TEN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -11.5.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Jackson's edge is 0.1 points (17.9 to 17.8). Lawrence's ceiling (29.4) clears Jackson's projection, so a big game from Lawrence flips it. Jackson's floor (8.7) sits under Lawrence's projection, so a quiet game from Jackson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Lamar Jackson comparisons
- Drake Maye or Lamar Jackson17.9 · 17.9
- Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson17.7 · 17.9
- Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson17.7 · 17.9
More Trevor Lawrence comparisons
- Dak Prescott or Trevor Lawrence17.7 · 17.8
- Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence17.7 · 17.8
- Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence17.9 · 17.8
- Trevor Lawrence or Tyler Shough17.8 · 17.9
This week's toughest calls
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott17.7 · 17.7
- Brock Purdy or Jayden Daniels17.1 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.7 · 16.7
- Geno Smith or Jordan Love16.3 · 16.3
- Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes17.0 · 17.0
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)