Should I start Lamar Jackson in Week 4?

Why Lamar Jackson

Start Lamar Jackson — projects 17.9, a favorable matchup vs TEN, with a rising role.

Lamar Jackson projects 17.9 points on a 8.7–20.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TEN. Usage: pass attempts / game at 23.2. Net: Lamar Jackson is start this week.

Working for Jackson: Rushing floor (5.2 rush att/g), High-scoring spot (27.5 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs QB).

Working against Jackson: Shaky floor (8.7 floor).

Matchup

Lamar Jackson (BAL) faces TEN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.5, spread -11.5.

Recent form

Lamar Jackson's last 5 games: PPR points 4.7, 20.4, 25, 14.8, 20.4 (oldest to newest).

At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.

What flips it

Jackson's edge is 1.3 points (17.9 to 16.6). Nix's ceiling (22.5) clears Jackson's projection, so a big game from Nix flips it. Jackson's floor (8.7) sits under Nix's projection, so a quiet game from Jackson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.