Robinson
WR · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
10.8pts
market
Lemon
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Makai Lemon or Wan'Dale Robinson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Wan'Dale Robinson over Makai Lemon by 0.1. Wan'Dale Robinson leads at 10.8. Makai Lemon is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 39% of managers started Robinson.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha target share30% target share
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
- Spike upside21.0 ceiling
Cons
- Low team total15.5 team total
Pros
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Robinson 11.4, Lemon 3.4.
Latest game on the card: Robinson 18.7 (PPR points).
Why Wan'Dale Robinson
Start Wan'Dale Robinson — projects 10.8, a favorable matchup vs BAL, but the role is cooling.
Wan'Dale Robinson projects 10.8 points on a 8.4–21.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 8.8. Net: start Wan'Dale Robinson this week.
Working for Robinson: Alpha target share (30% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), Spike upside (21.0 ceiling).
Working against Robinson: Low team total (15.5 team total).
Where Robinson leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.8 vs 10.7); Target share (30% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B); Last 3 avg (9.8 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (11.4 vs 3.4); Targets / game (8.8 vs 3.0); Snap share (91% vs 66%); Red zone targets (14 vs 0).
Why Makai Lemon
Sit Makai Lemon — projects 10.7, an even matchup vs LA.
Makai Lemon projects 10.7 points. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Makai Lemon this week.
Working for Lemon: Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Lemon: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Lemon leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (19.5 vs 15.5); vs season (+0.0 vs -2.1); Consistency (49% vs 41%); Boom rate (33% vs 19%); Bust rate (0% vs 19%).
Recent form
Wan'Dale Robinson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.2, 22.3, 8.8, 1.9, 18.7 (oldest to newest).
Makai Lemon's last 3 games: PPR points 1.9, 2.5, 5.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Robinson has already beaten Lemon's 10.7 projection in 2 of his 5; Lemon has beaten Robinson's 10.8 in 0 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.
Makai Lemon (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Makai Lemon comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Makai Lemon or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Makai Lemon10.5 · 10.7
- Makai Lemon or Xavier Worthy10.7 · 11.3
More Wan'Dale Robinson comparisons
- Ryan Flournoy or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Michael Pittman or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Wan'Dale Robinson or Xavier Worthy10.8 · 11.3
- Malik Washington or Wan'Dale Robinson11.3 · 10.8
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)