Dowdle
RB · PIT vs CLE
Proj pts
9.9pts
opportunity
Lloyd
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
9.7pts
market
MarShawn Lloyd or Rico Dowdle: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Rico Dowdle over MarShawn Lloyd by 0.2. Rico Dowdle leads at 9.9. MarShawn Lloyd is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Availability & news
Rico DowdlePractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back1% of touches
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Dowdle 35%, Lloyd 1%.
Dowdle is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Dowdle 6.4, Lloyd 3.8 (PPR points).
Why Rico Dowdle
Start Rico Dowdle — projects 9.9, an even matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Rico Dowdle projects 9.9 points on a 7.7–14.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CLE. Usage: carries / game at 13.9. Net: start Rico Dowdle this week.
Where Dowdle leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.9 vs 9.7); Floor (7.7 vs 3.6); Ceiling (14.1 vs 12.3); Touch share (35% vs 1%); Opportunity score (13.0 vs 5.3); Last 5 avg (6.6 vs 4.7); Boom rate (18% vs 0%); Carries / game (13.9 vs 6.0); Touches / game (16.2 vs 7.0); Target share (11% vs 8%); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 2.5); Snap share (56% vs 14%); Goal line carries (9 vs 0); Red zone carries (35 vs 0).
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Sit MarShawn Lloyd — projects 9.7, an even matchup vs TB.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 9.7 points on a 3.6–12.3 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: bench MarShawn Lloyd this week.
Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (21.0 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 5.2); vs season (+0.0 vs -3.1); Consistency (100% vs 26%); Bust rate (0% vs 29%); Rest / schedule (9 days rest vs Short week (4d)).
Recent form
Rico Dowdle's last 5 games: PPR points 8.3, 9.3, 5, 4.1, 6.4 (oldest to newest).
MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
Dowdle has already beaten Lloyd's 9.7 projection in 0 of his 5; Lloyd has beaten Dowdle's 9.9 in 0 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Rico Dowdle (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Dowdle's edge is 0.2 points (9.9 to 9.7). Lloyd's ceiling (12.3) clears Dowdle's projection, so a big game from Lloyd flips it. Dowdle's floor (7.7) sits under Lloyd's projection, so a quiet game from Dowdle flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Rico Dowdle comparisons
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Rico Dowdle or Travis Etienne9.9 · 10.5
- Emanuel Wilson or Rico Dowdle11.5 · 9.9
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- Omarion Hampton or Woody Marks12.2 · 12.2
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)