Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Noah Gray or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Noah Gray over Theo Johnson by 0.6. Noah Gray leads at 5.1. Theo Johnson is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Gray 2.8, Johnson 0.6.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 0 (PPR points).
Why Noah Gray
Start Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: start Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.1 vs 4.5); Implied team total (26.0 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (2.8 vs 0.6); vs season (-0.1 vs -3.1); Boom rate (36% vs 20%).
Why Theo Johnson
Sit Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 1.2); Ceiling (11.3 vs 6.0); Target share (17% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D-); Last 5 avg (3.6 vs 2.8); Consistency (34% vs 29%); Bust rate (20% vs 43%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 2.6); Snap share (87% vs 53%); Red zone targets (14 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 0%).
Recent form
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Gray has already beaten Johnson's 4.5 projection in 1 of his 3; Johnson has beaten Gray's 5.1 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Gray's edge is 0.6 points (5.1 to 4.5). Johnson's ceiling (11.3) clears Gray's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Gray's floor (1.2) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Gray flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)