Tremble
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
5.8pts
market
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Noah Gray or Tommy Tremble: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tommy Tremble over Noah Gray by 0.7. Tommy Tremble leads at 5.8. Noah Gray is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage9% target share
- Thin volume2.5 targets/g
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Tremble 20%, Gray 36%.
Why Tommy Tremble
Start Tommy Tremble — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs DET.
Tommy Tremble projects 5.8 points on a 1.6–7.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 2.5. Net: start Tommy Tremble this week.
Working against Tremble: Low TE usage (9% target share), Thin volume (2.5 targets/g).
Where Tremble leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.1); Floor (1.6 vs 1.2); Ceiling (7.0 vs 6.0); Target share (9% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D-); Last 3 avg (4.7 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 2.8); vs season (+0.4 vs -0.1); Snap share (60% vs 53%); Red zone targets (5 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (26.0 vs 23.5); Consistency (29% vs 0%); Boom rate (36% vs 20%); Bust rate (43% vs 47%); Targets / game (2.6 vs 2.5).
Recent form
Tommy Tremble's last 3 games: PPR points 1.4, 5.5, 7.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Tremble has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 2 of his 3; Gray has beaten Tremble's 5.8 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Tommy Tremble (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Tremble's edge is 0.7 points (5.8 to 5.1). Gray's ceiling (6) clears Tremble's projection, so a big game from Gray flips it. Tremble's floor (1.6) sits under Gray's projection, so a quiet game from Tremble flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)