New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Gray

TE · KC @ DEN

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points3.6pts

First out

Mallory

TE · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points4.0ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Noah Gray or Will Mallory: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Need a safe week? Noah Gray. Swinging for a big week? Will Mallory.

Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Mallory's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Mallory

Gray has the safer floor (1.9 to 1.3); Mallory has more upside (a ceiling of 7.6 to 6.0).

Flips if

Start Will Mallory instead if you go by the projection: he projects 0.4 more.

Risk

Will Mallory has played 2 games since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Sat 4:00 AM ET
GrayToss-upTE · KC @ DENUsually 4.6−1.1pts this week

Helps him

  1. +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.12 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.

Hurts him

  1. −1.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 13.5 receiving yards, below his usual 26.3.
  2. −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.0.
  3. 8%targetsHe draws only 8% of his team’s targets.
  4. 2.3per gameHe sees only 2.3 targets a game.
MalloryFirst outTE · IND @ JAXUsually 1.5+2.4pts this week

Helps him

  1. +1.4ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
  2. +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
  3. +0.5ptsrecent workHis work has picked up in his last few games.

Hurts him

  1. −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGray: 3.6Mallory: 4.0 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionGray: 0.7Mallory: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGray: 0.12Mallory: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGray: 20.8 (best)Mallory: 18.3
Red zone targetsper gameGray: 0.3Mallory: 0.5 (best)
Role
Snap shareGray: 59% (best)Mallory: 43%
Usage worthptsGray: 4.0Mallory: 8.0 (best)
Target shareGray: 8%Mallory: 15% (best)
Targets / gameGray: 2.3Mallory: 4.5 (best)
Air yards shareGray: 9%Mallory: 21% (best)
Vacated targets this weekGray: 3.8 (best)Mallory: 3.5
RZ target shareGray: 8%Mallory: 25% (best)
Inside 10 target shareGray: 9% (best)Mallory: 0%
Catch rateGray: 86% (best)Mallory: 22%
SeparationGray: Not trackedMallory: 3.0 yds
YAC over expectedGray: Not trackedMallory: +0.4
Usage worth vs scoredGray: Earned by usage 4.0Scored 4.6Mallory: Earned by usage 8.0Scored 2.0
WOPRGray: 0.20Mallory: 0.33 (best)
Range
FloorGray: 1.9 (best)Mallory: 1.3
CeilingGray: 6.0Mallory: 7.6 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGray: 0%Mallory: 0%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Gray: 0%Mallory: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterGray: 50% (best)Mallory: 100%
SteadinessGray: Up & down (best)±3.4 pts · 6 gamesMallory: Volatile±1.9 pts · 4 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGray: C+ (best)2026, 7 gmMallory: C2026, 6 gm
Game scriptGray: Expected to lead (best)Mallory: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGray: 1.4 (best)Mallory: 1.5
Defense funnelGray: NeutralMallory: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedGray: 17th (average)Mallory: 30th (soft) (best)
Starting QBGray: Mahomes (Active)Mallory: Jones (Active)
Opp defender outGray: Elliss (LB)Mallory: Johnson (SAF)
Roof / surfacegrassGray: OpenMallory: Open
Rest / scheduleGray: NormalMallory: Normal
Opp paceGray: 30th (slow)Mallory: 23rd (slow) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameGray: 0.4 (best)11th (average)Mallory: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedGray: 72% (best)13th (average)Mallory: 68%6th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgGray: 6.5Mallory: 2 games
Last 5 avgGray: 5.3Mallory: 2 games
vs seasonGray: +1.8 (Rising) (best)Mallory: 0.0
Yards per route runGray: 2.14 (best)Mallory: 0.47
Receiving aDOTGray: 6.9Mallory: 10.9
Target share trendGray: CoolingMallory: 2 games
Games since injuryGray: None recentlyMallory: 2
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGray: TE39Mallory: TE37 (best)
Yards linereceivingGray: 13.5Mallory: Our estimate

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