Ertz
TE · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
6.2pts
market
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Noah Gray or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Zach Ertz. Bench Noah Gray. Zach Ertz leads at 6.2. Noah Gray is the first one out, 1.0 short.
Availability & news
Zach Ertz
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.0 ceiling
Cons
- Low team total19.5 team total
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Ertz 8.4, Gray 2.8.
Ertz: “Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.” — RotoWire, Sep 29, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Ertz 1.9 (PPR points).
Why Zach Ertz
Start Zach Ertz — projects 6.2, an even matchup vs LA.
Zach Ertz projects 6.2 points on a 5.2–15.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: start Zach Ertz this week.
Working for Ertz: Spike upside (15.0 ceiling).
Working against Ertz: Low team total (19.5 team total).
Where Ertz leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.2 vs 5.1); Floor (5.2 vs 1.2); Ceiling (15.0 vs 6.0); Target share (19% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs D-); Last 3 avg (8.2 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 2.8); Consistency (41% vs 29%); Bust rate (15% vs 43%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 2.6); Snap share (66% vs 53%); Red zone targets (9 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (19% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (26.0 vs 19.5); vs season (-0.1 vs -0.2); Boom rate (36% vs 23%).
Recent form
Zach Ertz's last 5 games: PPR points 9.4, 8.2, 20.6, 2.1, 1.9 (oldest to newest).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Ertz has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 3 of his 5; Gray has beaten Ertz's 6.2 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Zach Ertz (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Ertz's edge is 1.1 points (6.2 to 5.1). Gray's ceiling (6) stays under Ertz's projection and Ertz's floor (5.2) stays over Gray's, so neither range reaches the other's projection. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)