Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
5.8pts
opportunity
Oronde Gadsden II or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start T.J. Hockenson. Bench Oronde Gadsden II. T.J. Hockenson leads at 6.9. Oronde Gadsden II is the first one out, 1.1 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Hockenson 48%, Gadsden 17%.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1, Gadsden 0 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 5.8); Floor (5.1 vs 2.8); Ceiling (11.4 vs 10.0); Target share (16% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B); Implied team total (24.5 vs 17.8); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 5.0); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 6.3); Consistency (48% vs 17%); Bust rate (20% vs 47%); Snap share (78% vs 63%); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 14%).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Sit Oronde Gadsden II — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 5.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: bench Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: vs season (+0.8 vs -0.2); Targets / game (4.6 vs 4.4); Red zone targets (15 vs 11).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Hockenson has already beaten Gadsden's 5.8 projection in 3 of his 5; Gadsden has beaten Hockenson's 6.9 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 1.1 points (6.9 to 5.8). Gadsden's ceiling (10) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Gadsden flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Gadsden's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)