Mallory
TE · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points4.0ptsUsage estimate
Gadsden
TE · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.0pts
Toss-up
Bench
Oronde Gadsden II or Will Mallory: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Will Mallory gets the nod over Oronde Gadsden II.
- Ahead by
- Level
- with Gadsden
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Mallory's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Gadsden
The case for Gadsden is an offense expected to score more (19.3 points to 18.3) and more of the snaps (47% to 43%).
Flips if
Start Oronde Gadsden II instead if you want more of the snaps (47% to 43%).
Risk
Will Mallory has played 2 games since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.
Highlights
MalloryToss-upTE · IND @ JAXUsually 1.5+2.4pts this week
Helps him
- +1.4ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +0.5ptsrecent workHis work has picked up in his last few games.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
GadsdenFirst outTE · LAC @ LAUsually 4.8−0.7pts this week
Helps him
- 7.2ceilingHis best weeks reach about 7.2 points.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.0.
- 12%targetsHe draws only 12% of his team’s targets.
- 3.5per gameHe sees only 3.5 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMallory: 4.0Gadsden: 4.0
TD pointsof the projectionMallory: Our estimateGadsden: 1.0
Expected TDsthis weekMallory: Our estimateGadsden: 0.16
Projected team pointsMallory: 18.3Gadsden: 19.3 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameMallory: 0.5Gadsden: 1.0 (best)
Role
Snap shareMallory: 43%Gadsden: 47% (best)
Usage worthptsMallory: 8.0 (best)Gadsden: 6.5
Target shareMallory: 15% (best)Gadsden: 12%
Targets / gameMallory: 4.5 (best)Gadsden: 3.5
Air yards shareMallory: 21% (best)Gadsden: 12%
Vacated targets this weekMallory: 3.5Gadsden: 7.0 (best)
RZ target shareMallory: 25%Gadsden: 27% (best)
Inside 10 target shareMallory: 0%Gadsden: 25% (best)
Catch rateMallory: 22%Gadsden: 57% (best)
SeparationMallory: 3.0 yds (best)Gadsden: 2.7 yds
YAC over expectedMallory: +0.4 (best)Gadsden: −0.8
Usage worth vs scoredMallory: Earned by usage 8.0Scored 2.0Gadsden: Earned by usage 6.5Scored 4.8
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsMallory: 1 RZ targetGadsden: In line
WOPRMallory: 0.33 (best)Gadsden: 0.27
Range
FloorMallory: 1.3Gadsden: 1.5 (best)
CeilingMallory: 7.6 (best)Gadsden: 7.2
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMallory: 0%Gadsden: 21%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Mallory: 0%Gadsden: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterMallory: 100%Gadsden: 60% (best)
SteadinessMallory: Volatile±1.9 pts · 4 gamesGadsden: Volatile (best)±4.7 pts · 5 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionMallory: C (best)2026, 6 gmGadsden: D-2026, 7 gm
Game scriptMallory: Expected to trailGadsden: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMallory: 1.5Gadsden: 0.9 (best)
Defense funnelMallory: NeutralGadsden: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMallory: 30th (soft) (best)Gadsden: 4th (tough)
Starting QBMallory: Jones (Active)Gadsden: Herbert (Active)
Opp defender outMallory: Johnson (SAF)Gadsden: None listed
Roof / surfaceMallory: OpengrassGadsden: Dometurf
Rest / scheduleMallory: NormalGadsden: Off a bye
Opp paceMallory: 23rd (slow)Gadsden: 3rd (fast) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMallory: 0.01st (tough)Gadsden: 0.6 (best)18th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedMallory: 68% (best)6th (tough)Gadsden: 59%2nd (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgMallory: 2 gamesGadsden: 4.5
Last 5 avgMallory: 2 gamesGadsden: 4.7
vs seasonMallory: 0.0 (best)Gadsden: −0.3 (Steady)
Yards per route runMallory: 0.47Gadsden: 0.97 (best)
Receiving aDOTMallory: 10.9Gadsden: 7.8
Target share trendMallory: 2 gamesGadsden: Steady
Games since injuryMallory: 2Gadsden: None recently
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMallory: TE37Gadsden: TE36 (best)
Yards linereceivingMallory: Our estimateGadsden: 15.5
Deciding on someone else?
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