Dowdle
RB · PIT vs CLE
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points8.3pts
Allgeier
RB · ARI @ DAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Toe
Projected points5.9ptsUsage estimate
7.3 if he plays · 80% to play
Toss-up
Bench
Rico Dowdle or Tyler Allgeier: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Rico Dowdle gets the nod over Tyler Allgeier.
- Ahead by
- +2.4pts
- over Allgeier
- Confidence
- Lower
- Tyler Allgeier may not play (about 80% to play)
Allgeier's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Rico Dowdle or a bigger role for Tyler Allgeier.
Risk
Rico Dowdle has played 2 games since missing time. Tyler Allgeier was limited in practice (toe): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
DowdleToss-upRB · PIT vs CLEProjected8.3pts
Helps him
- −3.5spreadEdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.
Hurts him
- 23%touchesHe handles only 23% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- CLEvs RBsEdgeCLE is the 6th toughest defense for running backs.
AllgeierFirst outRB · ARI @ DALUsually 6.9−1.0pts this week
Helps him
- +0.6ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- DALvs RBsEdgeDAL is the softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −1.4ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 1.4 points off his projection.
- 21%touchesHe handles only 21% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- +7.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionDowdle: 8.3 (best)Allgeier: 5.9
TD pointsof the projectionDowdle: 1.7Allgeier: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekDowdle: 0.29Allgeier: Our estimate
Projected team pointsDowdle: 21.5Allgeier: 23.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameDowdle: 0.0Allgeier: 0.3 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameDowdle: 1.3Allgeier: 1.7 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameDowdle: 0.3Allgeier: 0.4 (best)
Role
Snap shareDowdle: 39%Allgeier: 52% (best)
Usage worthptsDowdle: 10.1 (best)Allgeier: 8.9
Touch shareDowdle: 23% (best)Allgeier: 21%
Target shareDowdle: 12% (best)Allgeier: 6%
Touches / gameDowdle: 11.0Allgeier: 11.0
Targets / gameDowdle: 4.3 (best)Allgeier: 2.4
Vacated touches this weekDowdle: 0.0Allgeier: 0.0
High value touches / gameDowdle: 3.5 (best)Allgeier: 3.1
Goal line carry shareDowdle: 0%Allgeier: 25% (best)
Red zone touches / gameDowdle: 1.5Allgeier: 2.1 (best)
Rush success rateDowdle: 26%Allgeier: 31% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Dowdle: 0%Allgeier: 1.6% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredDowdle: Earned by usage 10.1Scored 8.3Allgeier: Earned by usage 8.9Scored 6.9
Rush yards / gameDowdle: 29.5 (best)Allgeier: 25.1
Points from rushingDowdle: 36%Allgeier: 49%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsDowdle: 1 RZ targetAllgeier: Below
WOPRDowdle: 0.18 (best)Allgeier: 0.08
RZ target shareDowdle: 7% (best)Allgeier: 5%
Inside 10 target shareDowdle: 11% (best)Allgeier: 0%
Catch rateDowdle: 76%Allgeier: 94% (best)
Rushing points / gameDowdle: 3.0 pts / gameAllgeier: 3.4 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorDowdle: 3.0 pts / game (best)Allgeier: 2.1 pts / game
Range
FloorDowdle: 5.4 (best)Allgeier: 3.8
CeilingDowdle: 12.5 (best)Allgeier: 8.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerDowdle: 0%Allgeier: 13%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Dowdle: 0%Allgeier: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterDowdle: 75%Allgeier: 71% (best)
SteadinessDowdle: Steady±4.5 pts · 4 gamesAllgeier: Very steady (best)±3.3 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmDowdle: D+Allgeier: A+ (best)
Game scriptDowdle: Expected to lead (best)Allgeier: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterDowdle: 1.3Allgeier: 0.6 (best)
Defense funnelDowdle: NeutralAllgeier: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedDowdle: 20th (average)Allgeier: 31st (soft) (best)
Backfield roleDowdle: BackupAllgeier: Committee
Opp defender outDowdle: None listedAllgeier: Bullard (DE)
Roof / surfaceDowdle: OpengrassAllgeier: Retractable roofturf
Rest / scheduleDowdle: NormalAllgeier: Normal
Opp paceDowdle: 22nd (slow)Allgeier: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateDowdle: 23%2nd (tough)Allgeier: 16% (best)24th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedDowdle: 4.6 (best)28th (soft)Allgeier: 4.425th (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedDowdle: 8th (tough)Allgeier: 15th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Dowdle: 0.0Allgeier: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedDowdle: 77%14th (average)Allgeier: 80% (best)18th (average)
Starting QBDowdle: Rodgers (Active)Allgeier: Brissett (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgDowdle: 9.6 (best)Allgeier: 5.8
Last 5 avgDowdle: 8.3 (best)Allgeier: 7.0
vs seasonDowdle: +1.4 (best)Allgeier: −1.1 (Cooling)
Yards per carryDowdle: 3.8 (best)Allgeier: 2.9
Carries / gameDowdle: 7.8Allgeier: 8.7 (best)
Yards per route runDowdle: 1.64 (best)Allgeier: 0.79
Receiving aDOTDowdle: −0.6Allgeier: −2.1
Touch share trendDowdle: Left 2 games hurtAllgeier: Steady
Games since injuryDowdle: 2Allgeier: None recently
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterDowdle: RB29 (best)Allgeier: RB40
Yards linerushingDowdle: 27.5Allgeier: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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