Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Ertz
TE · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
3.4pts
opportunity
Theo Johnson or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Theo Johnson. Bench Zach Ertz. Theo Johnson leads at 4.5. Zach Ertz is the first one out, 1.1 short.
Availability & news
Zach Ertz
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Pros
- Spike upside15.0 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor0.2 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Johnson 0.6, Ertz 8.2.
Ertz: “Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.” — RotoWire, Sep 29, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 0, Ertz 1.9 (PPR points).
Why Theo Johnson
Start Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: start Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Projection (4.5 vs 3.4); Floor (4.1 vs 0.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C+); Implied team total (21.5 vs 20.3); Snap share (87% vs 66%); Red zone targets (14 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 19%).
Why Zach Ertz
Sit Zach Ertz — projects 3.4, an even matchup vs LA.
Zach Ertz projects 3.4 points on a 0.2–15.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: bench Zach Ertz this week.
Working for Ertz: Spike upside (15.0 ceiling).
Working against Ertz: Shaky floor (0.2 floor).
Where Ertz leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.0 vs 11.3); Target share (19% vs 17%); Last 3 avg (8.2 vs 0.6); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 3.6); vs season (-0.2 vs -3.1); Consistency (41% vs 34%); Boom rate (23% vs 20%); Bust rate (15% vs 20%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 4.9).
Recent form
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Zach Ertz's last 5 games: PPR points 9.4, 8.2, 20.6, 2.1, 1.9 (oldest to newest).
Johnson has already beaten Ertz's 3.4 projection in 2 of his 5; Ertz has beaten Johnson's 4.5 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
Zach Ertz (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Johnson's edge is 1.1 points (4.5 to 3.4). Ertz's ceiling (15) clears Johnson's projection, so a big game from Ertz flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)