NBA Research Reference
NBA Draft Lottery Odds
The current NBA draft lottery odds, how the flattened system works, and what actually moves a team's draft position. Research, not picks.
Current NBA Lottery Odds
Odds of landing the #1 pick and a top-4 pick by lottery seed, under the flattened lottery system used since 2019.
| Lottery Seed | #1 Pick Odds | Top-4 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| #2 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| #3 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| #4 | 12.5% | 48.1% |
| #5 | 10.5% | 42.1% |
| #6 | 9.0% | 37.2% |
| #7 | 7.5% | 31.9% |
| #8 | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| #9 | 4.5% | 20.3% |
| #10 | 3.0% | 13.9% |
| #11 | 2.0% | 9.4% |
| #12 | 1.5% | 7.2% |
| #13 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| #14 | 0.5% | 2.4% |
Seed 1 = team with the worst regular-season record. The bottom three teams share identical 14% odds under the flattened system.
How the NBA draft lottery works
14 lottery teams
The 14 teams that miss the playoffs enter the lottery. The order they finish in the regular season sets their base odds.
Flattened odds since 2019
The bottom three teams now have identical 14% odds of landing the #1 pick. This was designed to reduce tanking incentives at the very bottom.
Top 4 drawn in the lottery
The first four picks are determined by random drawing. Picks 5–14 are assigned in reverse order of regular-season record (adjusted for lottery results).
Biggest possible fall
A team with the worst record can fall as far as pick #5. The team with the 14th-worst record can jump all the way to #1.
What to research about the lottery
The lottery odds are one piece. Here's what actually matters when evaluating a team's draft position.
Tanking incentives
Under the flattened system, there's diminishing return to being the absolute worst team. The 4th–6th worst records have similar enough odds that tanking for the bottom seed is less valuable.
Pick protections in trades
Teams trade picks with lottery protections (top-3, top-5, top-10). Understanding the lottery odds is key to evaluating which protections are likely to convey.
Historical pick value
The #1 pick is not always the best pick. Historical value analysis shows picks 2–5 can be more valuable depending on draft class strength.
Draft class quality
The value of a lottery pick depends heavily on the specific draft class. A weak #1 is often worth less than a strong #4.
Common questions
- What are the NBA draft lottery odds?
- The bottom three teams each have a 14% chance at the #1 pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-4 pick. Odds decrease down to 0.5% for the 14th-worst team. This flattened system has been in place since the 2019 lottery.
- When is the NBA draft lottery?
- The lottery is typically held in mid-May, a few days after the conclusion of the regular season and play-in tournament. The draft itself follows in late June.
- How are picks 5-14 determined?
- After the top 4 picks are drawn randomly (based on weighted odds), picks 5 through 14 are assigned in reverse order of regular-season record. Ties are broken by coin flip.
- Why did the NBA flatten the lottery odds?
- The 2019 flattening was designed to discourage tanking. Before 2019, the worst team had a 25% chance at the #1 pick; now they have 14%. This makes being the absolute worst team less rewarding.
- Can the team with the best lottery odds still miss the top pick?
- Yes. A team with the 14% top odds has an 86% chance of NOT winning the #1 pick. They can fall as far as the #5 pick if other teams jump them.
- How does the draft lottery affect trades?
- Many traded picks include protections tied to lottery outcomes. For example, a 'top-5 protected' pick conveys to the receiving team only if the original team's pick lands outside the top 5. Research on lottery odds drives the value of those protections.
Research any NBA team's draft situation
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