
What the line assumes
A 27.5-point line sits above Wembanyama's typical scoring night — close to a coin-flip.
Every line available for Victor tonight, with how often he cleared it across his recent games.
Consensus line
27.5
4 of 7 books agree
Updated 6h agoNuvela projection
24.7
10.2% below the line
Season hit rate
30/88
above the line · 34%
| Window | GP | Median | Over win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| L5 | 5 | 26 | 2/5 40% |
| L10 | 10 | 26 | 4/10 40% |
| L20 | 20 | 26 | 7/20 35% |
| Season | 88 | 25 | 30/88 34% |
Tough matchupNYK 12th vs forwards · pace -2.5 vs league
NYK is a top-12 defense against forwards.
Rest & venue4 days rest · +0.6 pts on rest
On 4 days rest, Wembanyama averages +0.6 points vs his season norm.
One injury factor into tonight's number — Garcia's status is the biggest swing.
Layer conditions to filter the sample. Median and over win% update live; below 8 games the sample is flagged as thin.
Tonight's matchup has historically resembled these games most closely — matched on opponent defensive rank, team pace, rest days, and venue.
New York's defensive ranking against each position over the last 15 games. Victor plays F-C.
| Pos | Rank | Pts | Ast | Reb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 2 | 20.9 | 8.6 | 5.2 |
| SG | 16 | 32.5 | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| SF | 7 | 24.5 | 4.3 | 8.5 |
| PF | 18 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 9.6 |
| C | 2 | 16.2 | 2.8 | 10.8 |
Lead forwards in high-usage roles, their most recent matchup against New York.
| Player | Date | Min | Points | vs 27.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NJ N. JokicDEN | 3/6 | 31 | 38 | above |
KP K. PorzingisGS | 1/2 | 17 | 4 | below |
JV J. ValanciunasDEN | 3/6 | 2 | 2 | below |
AS A. SengunHOU | 3/31 | 30 | 13 | below |
AS A. SarrWAS | 2/3 | 25 | 11 | below |
DS D. SabonisSAC | 1/27 | 33 | 11 | below |
Points 27.5 — over/under odds across the market.
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