Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
5.5pts
market
Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.3pts
market
Austin Hooper or Dawson Knox: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Austin Hooper by 0.2. Dawson Knox leads at 5.5. Austin Hooper is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Knox 14, Hooper 5.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 5.5, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 5.5 points on a 2.4–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.5 vs 5.3); Ceiling (16.9 vs 7.5); Target share (11% vs 7%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (27.8 vs 22.5); Bust rate (20% vs 23%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 2.0); Snap share (59% vs 52%); Red zone targets (14 vs 5); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 20%).
Why Austin Hooper
Sit Austin Hooper — projects 5.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.3 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: bench Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.2 vs 2.4); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 3.9); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 5.5); vs season (+1.2 vs -2.7); Consistency (41% vs 19%); Boom rate (15% vs 13%).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Knox has already beaten Hooper's 5.3 projection in 2 of his 4; Hooper has beaten Knox's 5.5 in 1 of his 2.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Knox's edge is 0.2 points (5.5 to 5.3). Hooper's ceiling (7.5) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Hooper flips it. Knox's floor (2.4) sits under Hooper's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)