Robinson
RB · ATL @ TB
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points20.5pts
Swift
RB · CHI @ SEA
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points17.3ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Bijan Robinson or D'Andre Swift: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Bijan Robinson over D'Andre Swift.
- Ahead by
- +3.2pts
- over Swift
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Swift's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Bijan Robinson's game turns worse, start D'Andre Swift.
Risk
Weather in Bijan Robinson's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
RobinsonLeanRB · ATL @ TBUsually 20.8−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.05 touchdowns, above his usual 0.71.
- 47%touchesHe handles 47% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
Hurts him
- −2.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 80.5 rushing yards, below his usual 100.6.
- TBvs RBsEdgeTB is the 10th toughest defense for running backs.
- −7.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 7.4 points below his season average.
SwiftFirst outRB · CHI @ SEAUsually 17.5−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.3ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.4ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- SEAvs RBsEdgeSEA is the 7th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionRobinson: 20.5 (best)Swift: 17.3
TD pointsof the projectionRobinson: 6.3Swift: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekRobinson: 1.05Swift: Our estimate
Projected team pointsRobinson: 20.5Swift: 21.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameRobinson: 1.0Swift: 2.0 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameRobinson: 3.4Swift: 4.0 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameRobinson: 0.3Swift: 0.3
Role
Snap shareRobinson: 71% (best)Swift: 62%
Usage worthptsRobinson: 18.0 (best)Swift: 17.8
Touch shareRobinson: 47% (best)Swift: 34%
Target shareRobinson: 18% (best)Swift: 11%
Touches / gameRobinson: 22.3 (best)Swift: 19.7
Targets / gameRobinson: 4.6 (best)Swift: 3.6
Vacated touches this weekRobinson: 9.8 (best)Swift: 0.0
High value touches / gameRobinson: 5.0Swift: 6.0 (best)
Goal line carry shareRobinson: 88% (best)Swift: 56%
Red zone touches / gameRobinson: 3.7Swift: 4.3 (best)
Rush success rateRobinson: 47% (best)Swift: 44%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Robinson: 5.3% (best)Swift: 1.7%
Usage worth vs scoredRobinson: Earned by usage 18.0Scored 20.8Swift: Earned by usage 17.8Scored 17.5
Rush yards / gameRobinson: 100.6 (best)Swift: 68.0
Points from rushingRobinson: 65%Swift: 73%
WOPRRobinson: 0.23 (best)Swift: 0.15
RZ target shareRobinson: 8% (best)Swift: 6%
Inside 10 target shareRobinson: 9% (best)Swift: 7%
Catch rateRobinson: 78%Swift: 88% (best)
Rushing points / gameRobinson: 13.5 pts / game (best)Swift: 12.8 pts / game
Rushing floorRobinson: 9.4 pts / game (best)Swift: 8.1 pts / game
Range
FloorRobinson: 13.4 (best)Swift: 11.3
CeilingRobinson: 31.5 (best)Swift: 25.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerRobinson: 21%Swift: 34%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Robinson: 43% (best)Swift: 30%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterRobinson: 14% (best)Swift: 17%
SteadinessRobinson: Steady±10.7 pts · 7 gamesSwift: Steady (best)±8.1 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmRobinson: C- (best)Swift: D+
Game scriptRobinson: Expected to trail (best)Swift: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterRobinson: 1.7Swift: 1.7
Defense funnelRobinson: NeutralSwift: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedRobinson: 2nd (tough)Swift: 6th (tough) (best)
Backfield roleRobinson: LeadSwift: Lead
WeatherRobinson: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainSwift: No concern
Roof / surfaceRobinson: OpengrassSwift: Openturf
Rest / scheduleRobinson: NormalSwift: 11 days rest
Opp paceRobinson: 14th (average)Swift: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateRobinson: 21% (best)7th (tough)Swift: 22%4th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedRobinson: 3.6 (best)4th (tough)Swift: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedRobinson: 14th (average) (best)Swift: 1st (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Robinson: 0.0Swift: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedRobinson: 83%24th (soft)Swift: 86% (best)28th (soft)
Starting QBRobinson: Penix (Active)Swift: Williams (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgRobinson: 13.4Swift: 19.8 (best)
Last 5 avgRobinson: 20.7 (best)Swift: 15.5
vs seasonRobinson: −7.4 (Cooling)Swift: +2.2 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryRobinson: 5.4 (best)Swift: 4.1
Carries / gameRobinson: 18.7 (best)Swift: 16.6
Yards per route runRobinson: 1.95 (best)Swift: 1.49
Receiving aDOTRobinson: −1.3Swift: −1.4
Touch share trendRobinson: SteadySwift: Rising
Crowd
Started in leaguesRobinson: 100% (best)Swift: 91%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterRobinson: RB2 (best)Swift: RB4
Yards linerushingRobinson: 80.5Swift: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.