Robinson
RB · ATL @ TB
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points20.5pts
Wilson
RB · SEA vs CHI
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points11.6ptsUsage estimate
Start
Bench
Bijan Robinson or Emanuel Wilson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Bijan Robinson over Emanuel Wilson.
- Ahead by
- +8.9pts
- over Wilson
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Wilson's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Bijan Robinson's game turns worse, start Emanuel Wilson.
Risk
Weather in Bijan Robinson's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
RobinsonStartRB · ATL @ TBUsually 20.8−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.05 touchdowns, above his usual 0.71.
- 47%touchesHe handles 47% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 13.4floorA quiet week still projects to about 13.4 points.
- 43%big weeks43% of his games have been big weeks.
Hurts him
- −2.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 80.5 rushing yards, below his usual 100.6.
- TBvs RBsEdgeTB is the 10th toughest defense for running backs.
- −7.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 7.4 points below his season average.
WilsonFirst outRB · SEA vs CHIUsually 12.4−0.9pts this week
Helps him
- +2.5ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- −3.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- 3rd softestper carryEdgeCHI allows few RB chances because teams throw on them; per carry or target they’re soft (0.85 pts, 3rd softest).
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionRobinson: 20.5 (best)Wilson: 11.6
TD pointsof the projectionRobinson: 6.3Wilson: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekRobinson: 1.05Wilson: Our estimate
Projected team pointsRobinson: 20.5Wilson: 24.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameRobinson: 1.0Wilson: 1.0
Red zone carriesper gameRobinson: 3.4 (best)Wilson: 2.4
Red zone targetsper gameRobinson: 0.3 (best)Wilson: 0.1
Role
Snap shareRobinson: 71% (best)Wilson: 40%
Usage worthptsRobinson: 18.0 (best)Wilson: 11.9
Touch shareRobinson: 47% (best)Wilson: 33%
Target shareRobinson: 18% (best)Wilson: 5%
Touches / gameRobinson: 22.3 (best)Wilson: 16.7
Targets / gameRobinson: 4.6 (best)Wilson: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekRobinson: 9.8Wilson: 11.7 (best)
High value touches / gameRobinson: 5.0 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Goal line carry shareRobinson: 88% (best)Wilson: 50%
Red zone touches / gameRobinson: 3.7 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Rush success rateRobinson: 47% (best)Wilson: 36%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Robinson: 5.3% (best)Wilson: 0.9%
Usage worth vs scoredRobinson: Earned by usage 18.0Scored 20.8Wilson: Earned by usage 11.9Scored 10.7
Rush yards / gameRobinson: 100.6 (best)Wilson: 57.6
Points from rushingRobinson: 65%Wilson: 78%
WOPRRobinson: 0.23 (best)Wilson: 0.07
RZ target shareRobinson: 8% (best)Wilson: 3%
Inside 10 target shareRobinson: 9% (best)Wilson: 0%
Catch rateRobinson: 78% (best)Wilson: 67%
Rushing points / gameRobinson: 13.5 pts / game (best)Wilson: 8.3 pts / game
Rushing floorRobinson: 9.4 pts / game (best)Wilson: 6.4 pts / game
Range
FloorRobinson: 13.4 (best)Wilson: 6.8
CeilingRobinson: 31.5 (best)Wilson: 18.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerRobinson: 21%Wilson: 32%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Robinson: 43% (best)Wilson: 17%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterRobinson: 14% (best)Wilson: 33%
SteadinessRobinson: Steady (best)±10.7 pts · 7 gamesWilson: Up & down±9.3 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmRobinson: C-Wilson: C-
Game scriptRobinson: Expected to trailWilson: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterRobinson: 1.7Wilson: 1.4 (best)
Defense funnelRobinson: NeutralWilson: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedRobinson: 2nd (tough)Wilson: 3rd (tough) (best)
Backfield roleRobinson: LeadWilson: Committee
WeatherRobinson: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainWilson: No concern
Roof / surfaceRobinson: OpengrassWilson: Openturf
Rest / scheduleRobinson: NormalWilson: Normal
Opp paceRobinson: 14th (average)Wilson: 1st (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateRobinson: 21%7th (tough)Wilson: 18% (best)18th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedRobinson: 3.64th (tough)Wilson: 4.3 (best)21st (average)
Opp pass yds allowedRobinson: 14th (average)Wilson: 20th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameRobinson: 0.01st (tough)Wilson: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedRobinson: 83%24th (soft)Wilson: 84% (best)25th (soft)
Starting QBRobinson: Penix (Active)Wilson: Darnold (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgRobinson: 13.4 (best)Wilson: 12.3
Last 5 avgRobinson: 20.7 (best)Wilson: 13.1
vs seasonRobinson: −7.4 (Cooling)Wilson: +1.6 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryRobinson: 5.4 (best)Wilson: 3.6
Carries / gameRobinson: 18.7 (best)Wilson: 15.9
Yards per route runRobinson: 1.95 (best)Wilson: 1.35
Receiving aDOTRobinson: −1.3Wilson: −1.3
Touch share trendRobinson: SteadyWilson: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesRobinson: 100% (best)Wilson: 47%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterRobinson: RB2 (best)Wilson: RB24
Yards linerushingRobinson: 80.5Wilson: Our estimate
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