Robinson
RB · ATL @ TB
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points20.5pts
Barkley
RB · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points6.0ptsUsage estimate
13.2 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Bijan Robinson over Saquon Barkley.
- Ahead by
- +14.5pts
- over Barkley
- Confidence
- High
- Saquon Barkley may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Barkley's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Bijan Robinson's game turns worse, start Saquon Barkley.
Risk
Weather in Bijan Robinson's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. Saquon Barkley missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Saquon Barkley has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
RobinsonStartRB · ATL @ TBUsually 20.8−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.05 touchdowns, above his usual 0.71.
- 47%touchesHe handles 47% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 1.0inside the 5He averages 1.0 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 13.4floorA quiet week still projects to about 13.4 points.
Hurts him
- −2.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 80.5 rushing yards, below his usual 100.6.
- TBvs RBsEdgeTB is the 10th toughest defense for running backs.
- −7.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 7.4 points below his season average.
BarkleyFirst outRB · PHI @ WASUsually 12.5−6.5pts this week
Helps him
- +5.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- +5.0ptsroleWith Pierce out, his expected role grows this week.
Hurts him
- −9.5ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.5 points off his projection.
- −3.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −3.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
- −0.7ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionRobinson: 20.5 (best)Barkley: 6.0
TD pointsof the projectionRobinson: 6.3Barkley: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekRobinson: 1.05Barkley: Our estimate
Projected team pointsRobinson: 20.5 (best)Barkley: 17.0
Goal line carriesper gameRobinson: 1.0 (best)Barkley: 0.4
Red zone carriesper gameRobinson: 3.4 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Red zone targetsper gameRobinson: 0.3 (best)Barkley: 0.0
Role
Snap shareRobinson: 71% (best)Barkley: 36%
Usage worthptsRobinson: 18.0 (best)Barkley: 7.6
Touch shareRobinson: 47% (best)Barkley: 22%
Target shareRobinson: 18% (best)Barkley: 7%
Touches / gameRobinson: 22.3 (best)Barkley: 9.8
Targets / gameRobinson: 4.6 (best)Barkley: 1.8
Vacated touches this weekRobinson: 9.8Barkley: 29.6 (best)
High value touches / gameRobinson: 5.0 (best)Barkley: 2.0
Goal line carry shareRobinson: 88% (best)Barkley: 29%
Red zone touches / gameRobinson: 3.7 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Rush success rateRobinson: 47% (best)Barkley: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Robinson: 5.3% (best)Barkley: 4.7%
Usage worth vs scoredRobinson: Earned by usage 18.0Scored 20.8Barkley: Earned by usage 7.6Scored 7.6
Rush yards / gameRobinson: 100.6 (best)Barkley: 48.8
Points from rushingRobinson: 65%Barkley: 80%
WOPRRobinson: 0.23 (best)Barkley: 0.09
RZ target shareRobinson: 8% (best)Barkley: 0%
Inside 10 target shareRobinson: 9% (best)Barkley: 0%
Catch rateRobinson: 78% (best)Barkley: 67%
Rushing points / gameRobinson: 13.5 pts / game (best)Barkley: 6.1 pts / game
Rushing floorRobinson: 9.4 pts / game (best)Barkley: 3.3 pts / game
Range
FloorRobinson: 13.4 (best)Barkley: 0.0
CeilingRobinson: 31.5 (best)Barkley: 8.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerRobinson: 21%Barkley: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Robinson: 43% (best)Barkley: 10%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterRobinson: 14%Barkley: 14%
SteadinessRobinson: Steady (best)±10.7 pts · 7 gamesBarkley: Steady±6.7 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionRobinson: C-2026, 7 gmBarkley: C (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptRobinson: Expected to trail (best)Barkley: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterRobinson: 1.7Barkley: 1.3 (best)
Defense funnelRobinson: NeutralBarkley: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedRobinson: 2nd (tough)Barkley: 14th (average) (best)
Backfield roleRobinson: LeadBarkley: Lead
Opp defender outRobinson: None listedBarkley: Kinlaw (DT)
WeatherRobinson: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainBarkley: No concern
Roof / surfacegrassRobinson: OpenBarkley: Open
Rest / scheduleRobinson: NormalBarkley: Normal
Opp paceRobinson: 14th (average)Barkley: 12th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateRobinson: 21%7th (tough)Barkley: 18% (best)17th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedRobinson: 3.64th (tough)Barkley: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedRobinson: 14th (average)Barkley: 28th (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameRobinson: 0.01st (tough)Barkley: 0.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedRobinson: 83% (best)24th (soft)Barkley: 73%10th (tough)
Starting QBRobinson: Penix (Active)Barkley: McKee (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgRobinson: 13.4 (best)Barkley: 8.7
Last 5 avgRobinson: 20.7 (best)Barkley: 7.6
vs seasonRobinson: −7.4 (Cooling)Barkley: +1.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryRobinson: 5.4Barkley: 5.7 (best)
Carries / gameRobinson: 18.7 (best)Barkley: 8.6
Yards per route runRobinson: 1.95 (best)Barkley: 0.65
Receiving aDOTRobinson: −1.3Barkley: −0.6
Touch share trendRobinson: SteadyBarkley: Left 2 games hurt
Games since injuryRobinson: None recentlyBarkley: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesRobinson: 100% (best)Barkley: 65%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterRobinson: RB2 (best)Barkley: RB38
Yards linerushingRobinson: 80.5Barkley: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.