Nix
QB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
16.6pts
market
Smith
QB · NYJ vs CHI
Proj pts
16.2pts
market
Bo Nix or Geno Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Bo Nix over Geno Smith by 0.4. Bo Nix leads at 16.6. Geno Smith is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Crowd: 47% of managers started Nix, 36% started Smith.
Highlights
Cons
- Shaky floor9.2 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is rushing production share: Nix 21%, Smith 6%.
Latest game on the card: Nix 24.1, Smith 26 (PPR points).
Why Bo Nix
Start Bo Nix — projects 16.6, an even matchup vs SF.
Bo Nix projects 16.6 points on a 13.7–22.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: pass attempts / game at 36.0. Net: start Bo Nix this week.
Where Nix leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.6 vs 16.2); Floor (13.7 vs 9.2); Ceiling (22.5 vs 17.8); Pass attempts (36.0 vs 29.9); Implied team total (22.3 vs 20.0); Last 5 avg (14.7 vs 14.4); Consistency (54% vs 44%); Bust rate (12% vs 27%); Pass attempts / game (36.0 vs 29.9); Completions / game (22.8 vs 20.1); Rush attempts / game (4.9 vs 2.7); Rush yards / game (20.9 vs 7.3); Rushing production share (21% vs 6%).
Why Geno Smith
Sit Geno Smith — projects 16.2, an even matchup vs CHI.
Geno Smith projects 16.2 points on a 9.2–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CHI. Usage: pass attempts / game at 29.9. Net: bench Geno Smith this week.
Working against Smith: Shaky floor (9.2 floor).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs B-); Last 3 avg (17.0 vs 14.6); vs season (+1.7 vs -1.8); Boom rate (13% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (6.8 vs 6.4).
Recent form
Bo Nix's last 5 games: PPR points 19.5, 10.5, 5.4, 14.1, 24.1 (oldest to newest).
Geno Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 14, 7.1, 9.3, 15.6, 26 (oldest to newest).
Nix has already beaten Smith's 16.2 projection in 2 of his 5; Smith has beaten Nix's 16.6 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Bo Nix (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Geno Smith (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Nix's edge is 0.4 points (16.6 to 16.2). Smith's ceiling (17.8) clears Nix's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Nix's floor (13.7) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Nix flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Bo Nix comparisons
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.7 · 16.7
- Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud16.7 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Patrick Mahomes16.7 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Kyler Murray16.7 · 16.3
More Geno Smith comparisons
- Geno Smith or Jordan Love16.3 · 16.3
- Geno Smith or Kyler Murray16.3 · 16.3
- Daniel Jones or Geno Smith16.2 · 16.3
This week's toughest calls
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott17.7 · 17.7
- Brock Purdy or Jayden Daniels17.1 · 17.0
- Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes17.0 · 17.0
- Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes17.1 · 17.0
- Jordan Love or Kyler Murray16.3 · 16.3
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)