Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Mitchell
RB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Start
Bench
Braelon Allen or Keaton Mitchell: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Braelon Allen over Keaton Mitchell.
- Ahead by
- +7.2pts
- over Mitchell
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 54%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Braelon Allen or a bigger role for Keaton Mitchell.
Highlights
AllenStartRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
MitchellFirst outRB · LAC @ LAUsually 6.2−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- OutGarrettEdgeHe faces a Rams defense without linebacker Myles Garrett.
Hurts him
- −1.3pts2 linesRushing yards 15.5 (usual 23.2) and catches 1.5 (usual 2.0) both sit below his usual.
- 17%touchesHe handles only 17% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionAllen: 12.0 (best)Mitchell: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionAllen: Our estimateMitchell: 1.1
Expected TDsthis weekAllen: Our estimateMitchell: 0.19
Projected team pointsAllen: 23.5 (best)Mitchell: 19.3
Goal line carriesper gameAllen: 0.3 (best)Mitchell: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameAllen: 1.3 (best)Mitchell: 0.5
Red zone targetsper gameAllen: 0.7 (best)Mitchell: 0.2
Role
Snap shareAllen: 67% (best)Mitchell: 32%
Usage worthptsAllen: 11.7 (best)Mitchell: 6.6
Touch shareAllen: 33% (best)Mitchell: 17%
Target shareAllen: 10% (best)Mitchell: 9%
Touches / gameAllen: 15.1 (best)Mitchell: 7.8
Targets / gameAllen: 2.9 (best)Mitchell: 2.5
Air yards shareAllen: 0.2%Mitchell: Behind the line
Vacated touches this weekAllen: 0.0Mitchell: 0.0
High value touches / gameAllen: 2.4 (best)Mitchell: 2.2
Goal line carry shareAllen: 25% (best)Mitchell: 0%
Red zone touches / gameAllen: 2.0 (best)Mitchell: 0.7
Rush success rateAllen: 42% (best)Mitchell: 37%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Allen: 2.2%Mitchell: 2.9% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredAllen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9Mitchell: Earned by usage 6.6Scored 6.2
Rush yards / gameAllen: 59.7 (best)Mitchell: 23.2
Points from rushingAllen: 71%Mitchell: 37%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAllen: BelowMitchell: 1 RZ target
WOPRAllen: 0.16 (best)Mitchell: 0.12
RZ target shareAllen: 22% (best)Mitchell: 5%
Inside 10 target shareAllen: 0%Mitchell: 8% (best)
Catch rateAllen: 75%Mitchell: 80% (best)
Rushing points / gameAllen: 7.7 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 2.3 pts / game
Rushing floorAllen: 5.1 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 1.8 pts / game
Range
FloorAllen: 7.8 (best)Mitchell: 2.6
CeilingAllen: 19.6 (best)Mitchell: 8.3
Points from TDssteadier when lowerAllen: 16%Mitchell: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Allen: 0%Mitchell: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterAllen: 29% (best)Mitchell: 67%
SteadinessAllen: Steady (best)±6.2 pts · 7 gamesMitchell: Volatile±5.4 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmAllen: B+ (best)Mitchell: D+
Game scriptAllen: Expected to lead (best)Mitchell: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterAllen: 1.7Mitchell: 0.9 (best)
Defense funnelAllen: NeutralMitchell: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedAllen: 30th (soft) (best)Mitchell: 18th (average)
Backfield roleAllen: LeadMitchell: Backup
Opp defender outAllen: None listedMitchell: Garrett (LB)
Roof / surfaceturfAllen: OpenMitchell: Dome
Rest / scheduleAllen: NormalMitchell: Off a bye
Opp paceAllen: 9th (fast)Mitchell: 3rd (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateAllen: 13% (best)29th (soft)Mitchell: 19%14th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedAllen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)Mitchell: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedAllen: 22nd (soft) (best)Mitchell: 4th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameAllen: 0.01st (tough)Mitchell: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedAllen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)Mitchell: 78%16th (average)
Starting QBAllen: Smith (Active)Mitchell: Herbert (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgAllen: 16.8 (best)Mitchell: 5.9
Last 5 avgAllen: 12.8 (best)Mitchell: 7.2
vs seasonAllen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)Mitchell: −0.3 (Steady)
Yards per carryAllen: 4.6 (best)Mitchell: 4.0
Carries / gameAllen: 13.0 (best)Mitchell: 5.8
Yards per route runAllen: 0.71Mitchell: 0.83 (best)
Receiving aDOTAllen: 0.2Mitchell: −1.8
Touch share trendAllen: SteadyMitchell: Cooling
Crowd
Started in leaguesAllen: 55%Mitchell: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterAllen: RB21 (best)Mitchell: RB49
Yards linerushingAllen: Our estimateMitchell: 15.5
Deciding on someone else?
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