Gordon
RB · MIA vs NE
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points11.8pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Braelon Allen or Ollie Gordon II: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Ollie Gordon II. Swinging for a big week? Braelon Allen.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 87%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Allen
Gordon has the safer floor (8.3 to 7.8); Allen has more upside (a ceiling of 19.6 to 16.5).
Flips if
If the weather in Ollie Gordon II's game turns worse, start Braelon Allen.
Risk
Weather in Ollie Gordon II's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
GordonToss-upRB · MIA vs NEUsually 13.1−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 9.5 receiving yards, above his usual 2.8.
- 1.7inside the 5He averages 1.7 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- steadyHis weekly scores stay close to his average.
- 4games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.55 touchdowns, below his usual 0.80.
- −0.7ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 60.5 rushing yards, below his usual 67.8.
- NEvs RBsEdgeNE is the 2nd toughest defense for running backs.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGordon: 11.8Allen: 12.0 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionGordon: 3.3Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGordon: 0.55Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGordon: 18.0Allen: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameGordon: 1.7 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameGordon: 3.3 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameGordon: 0.0Allen: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareGordon: 52%Allen: 67% (best)
Usage worthptsGordon: 11.2Allen: 11.7 (best)
Touch shareGordon: 30%Allen: 33% (best)
Target shareGordon: 6%Allen: 10% (best)
Touches / gameGordon: 13.0Allen: 15.1 (best)
Targets / gameGordon: 1.3Allen: 2.9 (best)
Air yards shareGordon: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekGordon: 15.3 (best)Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameGordon: 2.8 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareGordon: 71% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameGordon: 3.3 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateGordon: 38%Allen: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Gordon: 4.2% (best)Allen: 2.2%
Usage worth vs scoredScored 10.9Gordon: Earned by usage 11.2Allen: Earned by usage 11.7
Rush yards / gameGordon: 56.5Allen: 59.7 (best)
Points from rushingGordon: 89%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsGordon: 0 RZ targetsAllen: Below
WOPRGordon: 0.07Allen: 0.16 (best)
RZ target shareGordon: 0%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareGordon: 0%Allen: 0%
Catch rateGordon: 75%Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameGordon: 9.7 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorGordon: 5.0 pts / gameAllen: 5.1 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorGordon: 8.3 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingGordon: 16.5Allen: 19.6 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGordon: 37%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Gordon: 0%Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterGordon: 0% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessGordon: Very steady (best)±1.8 pts · 4 gamesAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmGordon: DAllen: B+ (best)
Game scriptGordon: Expected to trailAllen: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGordon: 1.0 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelGordon: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedGordon: 8th (tough)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleGordon: LeadAllen: Lead
WeatherGordon: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rainAllen: No concern
Roof / surfaceGordon: OpengrassAllen: Openturf
Rest / scheduleGordon: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceGordon: 16th (average)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateGordon: 13%28th (soft)Allen: 13%29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedGordon: 4.112th (average)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedGordon: 19th (average)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Gordon: 0.0Allen: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedGordon: 82%20th (average)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBGordon: Willis (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgGordon: 16.7Allen: 16.8 (best)
Last 5 avgGordon: 13.1 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonGordon: +5.8 (Rising)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryGordon: 4.7 (best)Allen: 4.6
Carries / gameGordon: 12.0Allen: 13.0 (best)
Yards per route runGordon: 0.22Allen: 0.71 (best)
Receiving aDOTGordon: −3.3Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendGordon: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesGordon: 88% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGordon: RB23Allen: RB21 (best)
Yards linerushingGordon: 60.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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