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Scoring
#1 Start

Robinson

RB · ATL vs NO

Mon 8:15 PM

Proj pts

8pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Lloyd

RB · GB vs TB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

7.1pts

market

Mod Conf

Brian Robinson or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Brian Robinson. Bench MarShawn Lloyd. Brian Robinson leads at 8.0. MarShawn Lloyd is the first one out, 0.8 short.

Availability & news

  • Brian Robinson

    Robinson rushed 10 times for 50 yards and a touchdown and returned two kickoffs for 54 yards in the Falcons' 35-14 win over the Packers on Thursday.(rotowire, Sep 25, 2026)

Highlights

Brian RobinsonStart
RB · ATL vs NO

Pros

  • Reliable80% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back11% of touches
  • Negative game scriptTrailing
MarShawn LloydBench
RB · GB vs TB

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back1% of touches
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

RobinsonStart
LloydBench
Projection8.07.1
Floor3.03.6
Ceiling10.09.8
Touch share11%1%
Opportunity score4.55.3
Matchup grade(recency weighted)CB-
Implied team total22.821.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Robinson 11%, Lloyd 1%.

Robinson: “Robinson rushed 10 times for 50 yards and a touchdown and returned two kickoffs for 54 yards in the Falcons' 35-14 win over the Packers on Thursday.” — RotoWire, Sep 25, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Robinson 11, Lloyd 3.8 (PPR points).

Why Brian Robinson

Start Brian Robinson — projects 8.0, an even matchup vs NO, with a rising role.

Brian Robinson projects 8.0 points on a 3.0–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: carries / game at 5.4. Net: start Brian Robinson this week.

Working for Robinson: Reliable (80% consistency).

Working against Robinson: Committee back (11% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).

Where Robinson leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.0 vs 7.1); Ceiling (10.0 vs 9.8); Touch share (11% vs 1%); Implied team total (22.8 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (7.6 vs 5.4); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 4.7); vs season (+1.3 vs +0.0); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 2.5); Snap share (17% vs 14%); Goal line carries (2 vs 0); Red zone carries (13 vs 0); Implied total (22.8 vs 21.5); Rest / schedule (11 days rest vs 9 days rest).

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Sit MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.

MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: bench MarShawn Lloyd this week.

Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.6 vs 3.0); Opportunity score (5.3 vs 4.5); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Consistency (100% vs 80%); Carries / game (6.0 vs 5.4); Touches / game (7.0 vs 5.9); Target share (8% vs 2%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (5.3 vs 4.5); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (B- vs C).

Recent form

Brian Robinson's last 5 games: PPR points 3.8, 0.9, 3.1, 8.7, 11 (oldest to newest).

MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Robinson has already beaten Lloyd's 7.1 projection in 2 of his 5; Lloyd has beaten Robinson's 8 in 1 of his 4.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Brian Robinson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Robinson's edge is 0.9 points (8 to 7.1). Lloyd's ceiling (9.8) clears Robinson's projection, so a big game from Lloyd flips it. Robinson's floor (3) sits under Lloyd's projection, so a quiet game from Robinson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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