Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Cade Otton or Darren Waller: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Darren Waller. Bench Cade Otton. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Cade Otton is the first one out, 1.2 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Cons
- Low team total17.5 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Waller 41%, Otton 5%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1, Otton 8.6 (PPR points).
Why Darren Waller
Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 8.4); Ceiling (15.4 vs 9.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 17.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 7.7); Boom rate (33% vs 20%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 5%).
Why Cade Otton
Sit Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: bench Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (17.5 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.2 vs 4.2); Target share (18% vs 15%); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 8.2); vs season (+3.2 vs -0.3); Consistency (31% vs 15%); Bust rate (27% vs 33%); Targets / game (5.4 vs 3.8); Snap share (94% vs 45%).
Recent form
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
Waller has already beaten Otton's 8.4 projection in 2 of his 5; Otton has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 1 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Waller's edge is 1.2 points (9.6 to 8.4). Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Otton's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)