Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Cade Otton or Gunnar Helm: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Cade Otton. Bench Gunnar Helm. Cade Otton leads at 8.4. Gunnar Helm is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Otton 11.3, Helm 3.5.
Latest game on the card: Otton 8.6, Helm 3.4 (PPR points).
Why Cade Otton
Start Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: start Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 7.6); Floor (5.2 vs 3.2); Target share (18% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C- vs D); Implied team total (18.0 vs 16.0); Last 3 avg (7.7 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 3.5); vs season (+3.2 vs -2.5); Boom rate (20% vs 19%); Bust rate (27% vs 31%); Targets / game (5.4 vs 3.4); Snap share (94% vs 53%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (C- vs D); Implied total (18.0 vs 16.0).
Why Gunnar Helm
Sit Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: bench Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (10.1 vs 9.2); Consistency (34% vs 31%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (13% vs 5%).
Recent form
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
Otton has already beaten Helm's 7.6 projection in 3 of his 4; Helm has beaten Otton's 8.4 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Otton's edge is 0.8 points (8.4 to 7.6). Helm's ceiling (10.1) clears Otton's projection, so a big game from Helm flips it. Otton's floor (5.2) sits under Helm's projection, so a quiet game from Otton flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)