Pitts
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
8.9pts
market
Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Cade Otton or Kyle Pitts: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyle Pitts. Bench Cade Otton. Kyle Pitts leads at 8.9. Cade Otton is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage23% target share
- Spike upside17.8 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.3 floor
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Pitts 1.3, Otton 7.7.
Latest game on the card: Pitts 1.5, Otton 8.6 (PPR points).
Why Kyle Pitts
Start Kyle Pitts — projects 8.9, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.
Kyle Pitts projects 8.9 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: start Kyle Pitts this week.
Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).
Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).
Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.9 vs 8.4); Ceiling (17.8 vs 9.2); Target share (23% vs 18%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs C-); Implied team total (22.8 vs 18.0); Targets / game (6.9 vs 5.4); Red zone targets (13 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 5%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (C vs C-); Implied total (22.8 vs 18.0).
Why Cade Otton
Sit Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: bench Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.2 vs 3.3); Last 3 avg (7.7 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 4.1); vs season (+3.2 vs -7.9); Consistency (31% vs 23%); Boom rate (20% vs 6%); Bust rate (27% vs 29%); Snap share (94% vs 88%).
Recent form
Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
Pitts has already beaten Otton's 8.4 projection in 1 of his 5; Otton has beaten Pitts's 8.9 in 1 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Pitts's edge is 0.5 points (8.9 to 8.4). Otton's ceiling (9.2) clears Pitts's projection, so a big game from Otton flips it. Pitts's floor (3.3) sits under Otton's projection, so a quiet game from Pitts flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)