Brown
RB · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points16.6pts
Wilson
RB · SEA vs CHI
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points11.6ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Chase Brown or Emanuel Wilson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Chase Brown over Emanuel Wilson.
- Ahead by
- +5.0pts
- over Wilson
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 89%
- of leagues
Wilson's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Emanuel Wilson instead if you want a faster paced opponent.
Risk
The risk: Wilson ran for 100 yards, caught 1 for 15 and scored last week (18.5 points).
Highlights
BrownLeanRB · CIN vs TENUsually 12.5+4.2pts this week
Helps him
- +4.4ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.90 touchdowns, above his usual 0.17.
- +1.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 57.0 rushing yards, above his usual 47.5.
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
- TENvs RBsEdgeTEN is the 7th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, below his usual 4.7.
WilsonFirst outRB · SEA vs CHIUsually 12.4−0.9pts this week
Helps him
- +2.5ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- 1.0inside the 5He averages 1.0 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- 3rd softestper carryEdgeCHI allows few RB chances because teams throw on them; per carry or target they’re soft (0.85 pts, 3rd softest).
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBrown: 16.6 (best)Wilson: 11.6
TD pointsof the projectionBrown: 5.4Wilson: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBrown: 0.90Wilson: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBrown: 29.5 (best)Wilson: 24.8
Goal line carriesper gameBrown: 0.7Wilson: 1.0 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameBrown: 2.2Wilson: 2.4 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameBrown: 0.5 (best)Wilson: 0.1
Role
Snap shareBrown: 71% (best)Wilson: 40%
Usage worthptsBrown: 16.4 (best)Wilson: 11.9
Touch shareBrown: 38% (best)Wilson: 33%
Target shareBrown: 15% (best)Wilson: 5%
Touches / gameBrown: 18.3 (best)Wilson: 16.7
Targets / gameBrown: 5.5 (best)Wilson: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekBrown: 0.0Wilson: 11.7 (best)
High value touches / gameBrown: 5.8 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Goal line carry shareBrown: 67% (best)Wilson: 50%
Red zone touches / gameBrown: 2.7 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Rush success rateBrown: 38% (best)Wilson: 36%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Brown: 0%Wilson: 0.9% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBrown: Earned by usage 16.4Scored 12.5Wilson: Earned by usage 11.9Scored 10.7
Rush yards / gameBrown: 47.5Wilson: 57.6 (best)
Points from rushingBrown: 46%Wilson: 78%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBrown: BelowWilson: 1 RZ target
WOPRBrown: 0.21 (best)Wilson: 0.07
RZ target shareBrown: 10% (best)Wilson: 3%
Inside 10 target shareBrown: 12% (best)Wilson: 0%
Catch rateBrown: 85% (best)Wilson: 67%
Rushing points / gameBrown: 5.8 pts / gameWilson: 8.3 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorBrown: 5.2 pts / gameWilson: 6.4 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorBrown: 10.6 (best)Wilson: 6.8
CeilingBrown: 22.5 (best)Wilson: 18.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBrown: 8%Wilson: 32%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Brown: 16%Wilson: 17% (best)
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterBrown: 10% (best)Wilson: 33%
SteadinessBrown: Very steady (best)±7.0 ptsWilson: Up & down±9.3 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmBrown: B+ (best)Wilson: C-
Game scriptBrown: Expected to lead (best)Wilson: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBrown: 1.0 (best)Wilson: 1.4
Defense funnelBrown: NeutralWilson: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedBrown: 26th (soft) (best)Wilson: 3rd (tough)
Backfield roleBrown: LeadWilson: Committee
Opp defender outBrown: None listedWilson: Johnson (SAF)
Roof / surfaceturfBrown: OpenWilson: Open
Rest / scheduleBrown: NormalWilson: Normal
Opp paceBrown: 32nd (slow)Wilson: 1st (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateBrown: 19%13th (average)Wilson: 18% (best)18th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedBrown: 4.112th (average)Wilson: 4.3 (best)21st (average)
Opp pass yds allowedBrown: 23rd (soft) (best)Wilson: 20th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game24th (soft)Brown: 0.1Wilson: 0.1
Opp catch rate allowedBrown: 80%18th (average)Wilson: 84% (best)25th (soft)
Starting QBBrown: Burrow (Active)Wilson: Darnold (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgBrown: 12.0Wilson: 12.3 (best)
Last 5 avgBrown: 11.2Wilson: 13.1 (best)
vs seasonBrown: −0.5 (Steady)Wilson: +1.6 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryBrown: 3.5Wilson: 3.6 (best)
Carries / gameBrown: 13.7Wilson: 15.9 (best)
Yards per route runBrown: 1.15Wilson: 1.35 (best)
Receiving aDOTBrown: −0.8Wilson: −1.3
Touch share trendBrown: SteadyWilson: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesBrown: 90% (best)Wilson: 47%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBrown: RB8 (best)Wilson: RB24
Yards linerushingBrown: 57.0Wilson: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.