Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
5.5pts
market
Okonkwo
TE · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
5.5pts
opportunity
Chig Okonkwo or Dawson Knox: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Chig Okonkwo; the two are level at 5.5. Dawson Knox leads at 5.5. Chig Okonkwo is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Knox and Okonkwo are effectively tied on projection — Knox gets the start on the tie-break.
Availability & news
Chig OkonkwoPractice: Limited
Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role64% of snaps
- Shaky floor3.9 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Knox 14, Okonkwo 5.
Okonkwo (Practice: Limited): “Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5, Okonkwo 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 5.5, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 5.5 points on a 2.4–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (16.9 vs 12.4); Implied team total (27.8 vs 22.5); Bust rate (20% vs 24%); Red zone targets (14 vs 5); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 10%).
Why Chig Okonkwo
Sit Chig Okonkwo — projects 5.5, a favorable matchup vs IND.
Chig Okonkwo projects 5.5 points on a 3.9–12.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: bench Chig Okonkwo this week.
Working for Okonkwo: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Okonkwo: Rotational role (64% of snaps), Shaky floor (3.9 floor).
Where Okonkwo leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.9 vs 2.4); Target share (15% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B-); Last 3 avg (6.8 vs 3.9); Last 5 avg (8.8 vs 5.5); vs season (+1.5 vs -2.7); Consistency (42% vs 19%); Boom rate (18% vs 13%); Targets / game (4.6 vs 3.1); Snap share (64% vs 59%).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Chig Okonkwo's last 5 games: PPR points 7.3, 16.4, 14.5, 2.2, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Knox has already beaten Okonkwo's 5.5 projection in 2 of his 4; Okonkwo has beaten Knox's 5.5 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Chig Okonkwo (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Knox and Okonkwo are level on projection (5.5). Okonkwo's ceiling (12.4) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Okonkwo flips it. Knox's floor (2.4) sits under Okonkwo's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)