Johnson
RB · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Rodriguez
RB · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Chris Rodriguez Jr. or Ty Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ty Johnson over Chris Rodriguez Jr by 0.1. Ty Johnson leads at 6.8. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Cons
- Committee back15% of touches
- Shaky floor4.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Johnson 7%, Rodriguez 1%.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 9, Rodriguez 9.7 (PPR points).
Why Ty Johnson
Start Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: start Ty Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.7); Floor (5.8 vs 4.3); Ceiling (15.2 vs 14.0); Implied team total (27.8 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 4.4); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 7.2); vs season (+0.9 vs -1.1); Target share (7% vs 1%).
Why Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Sit Chris Rodriguez Jr. — projects 6.7, a run-funnel matchup vs CIN, but the role is cooling.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 6.7 points on a 4.3–14.0 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against CIN. Usage: carries / game at 9.3. Net: bench Chris Rodriguez Jr. this week.
Working for Rodriguez: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).
Working against Rodriguez: Committee back (15% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).
Where Rodriguez leads the head-to-head: Touch share (15% vs 8%); Opportunity score (6.4 vs 4.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs F); Consistency (49% vs 20%); Boom rate (20% vs 14%); Bust rate (10% vs 29%); Carries / game (9.3 vs 2.9); Touches / game (9.6 vs 4.4); Yards per carry (4.5 vs 4.0); Snap share (34% vs 30%); Goal line carries (14 vs 6); Red zone carries (33 vs 19).
Recent form
Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).
Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s last 4 games: PPR points 15.3, 2.3, 1.3, 9.7 (oldest to newest).
Johnson has already beaten Rodriguez's 6.7 projection in 4 of his 5; Rodriguez has beaten Johnson's 6.8 in 2 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Johnson's edge is 0.1 points (6.8 to 6.7). Rodriguez's ceiling (14) clears Johnson's projection, so a big game from Rodriguez flips it. Johnson's floor (5.8) sits under Rodriguez's projection, so a quiet game from Johnson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)