Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
5.5pts
market
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Cole Kmet or Dawson Knox: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Cole Kmet by 0.1. Dawson Knox leads at 5.5. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Knox 13%, Kmet 25%.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5, Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 5.5, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 5.5 points on a 2.4–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.5 vs 5.4); Ceiling (16.9 vs 9.6); Target share (11% vs 10%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (3.9 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 4.1); Bust rate (20% vs 25%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 3.0); Red zone targets (14 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 15%).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.8 vs 2.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); vs season (-0.8 vs -2.7); Consistency (36% vs 19%); Boom rate (25% vs 13%); Snap share (71% vs 59%).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Knox has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 2 of his 4; Kmet has beaten Knox's 5.5 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Knox's edge is 0.1 points (5.5 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Knox's floor (2.4) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)