Gibbs
RB · DET vs MIN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points24.0pts
Swift
RB · CHI @ SEA
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points17.3ptsUsage estimate
Start
Bench
D'Andre Swift or Jahmyr Gibbs: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over D'Andre Swift.
- Ahead by
- +6.7pts
- over Swift
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Swift's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Jahmyr Gibbs or a bigger role for D'Andre Swift.
Highlights
GibbsStartRB · DET vs MINUsually 28.5−4.5pts this week
Helps him
- 53%touchesHe handles 53% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 6.7per gameHe adds 6.7 targets a game as a receiver.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 84.5 rushing yards, below his usual 103.3.
- −1.4ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.26 touchdowns, below his usual 1.50.
- −1.0ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 34.5 receiving yards, below his usual 45.0.
- −0.8ptscatchesHis lines put him at 4.5 catches, below his usual 5.3.
SwiftFirst outRB · CHI @ SEAUsually 17.5−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.3ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.4ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- SEAvs RBsEdgeSEA is the 7th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGibbs: 24.0 (best)Swift: 17.3
TD pointsof the projectionGibbs: 7.6Swift: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGibbs: 1.26Swift: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGibbs: 24.8 (best)Swift: 21.8
Goal line carriesper gameGibbs: 2.2 (best)Swift: 2.0
Red zone carriesper gameGibbs: 6.0 (best)Swift: 4.0
Red zone targetsper gameGibbs: 1.2 (best)Swift: 0.3
Role
Snap shareGibbs: 79% (best)Swift: 62%
Usage worthptsGibbs: 26.3 (best)Swift: 17.8
Touch shareGibbs: 53% (best)Swift: 34%
Target shareGibbs: 19% (best)Swift: 11%
Touches / gameGibbs: 27.7 (best)Swift: 19.7
Targets / gameGibbs: 6.7 (best)Swift: 3.6
Air yards shareGibbs: 2%Swift: Behind the line
Vacated touches this weekGibbs: 0.0Swift: 0.0
High value touches / gameGibbs: 8.0 (best)Swift: 6.0
Goal line carry shareGibbs: 93% (best)Swift: 56%
Red zone touches / gameGibbs: 7.2 (best)Swift: 4.3
Rush success rateGibbs: 50% (best)Swift: 44%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Gibbs: 1.5%Swift: 1.7% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredGibbs: Earned by usage 26.3Scored 28.5Swift: Earned by usage 17.8Scored 17.5
Rush yards / gameGibbs: 103.3 (best)Swift: 68.0
Points from rushingGibbs: 61%Swift: 73%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsGibbs: AboveSwift: 2 RZ targets
WOPRGibbs: 0.29 (best)Swift: 0.15
RZ target shareGibbs: 15% (best)Swift: 6%
Inside 10 target shareGibbs: 5%Swift: 7% (best)
Catch rateGibbs: 80%Swift: 88% (best)
Rushing points / gameGibbs: 17.3 pts / game (best)Swift: 12.8 pts / game
Rushing floorGibbs: 11.4 pts / game (best)Swift: 8.1 pts / game
Range
FloorGibbs: 15.5 (best)Swift: 11.3
CeilingGibbs: 35.9 (best)Swift: 25.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGibbs: 32%Swift: 34%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Gibbs: 60% (best)Swift: 30%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterGibbs: 8% (best)Swift: 17%
SteadinessGibbs: Very steady (best)±13.0 ptsSwift: Steady±8.1 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGibbs: F2026, 6 gmSwift: D+ (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptGibbs: Expected to lead (best)Swift: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGibbs: 1.8Swift: 1.7 (best)
Defense funnelGibbs: NeutralSwift: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedGibbs: 10th (tough) (best)Swift: 6th (tough)
Backfield roleGibbs: LeadSwift: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfGibbs: DomeSwift: Open
Rest / scheduleGibbs: NormalSwift: 11 days rest
Opp paceGibbs: 26th (slow)Swift: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateGibbs: 19% (best)11th (average)Swift: 22%4th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedGibbs: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Swift: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedGibbs: 2nd (tough) (best)Swift: 1st (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Gibbs: 0.0Swift: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedGibbs: 70%6th (tough)Swift: 86% (best)28th (soft)
Starting QBGibbs: Goff (Active)Swift: Williams (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgGibbs: 24.2 (best)Swift: 19.8
Last 5 avgGibbs: 27.5 (best)Swift: 15.5
vs seasonGibbs: −4.3 (Cooling)Swift: +2.2 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryGibbs: 4.6 (best)Swift: 4.1
Carries / gameGibbs: 22.3 (best)Swift: 16.6
Yards per route runGibbs: 2.06 (best)Swift: 1.49
Receiving aDOTGibbs: 0.9Swift: −1.4
Touch share trendGibbs: RisingSwift: Rising
Crowd
Started in leaguesGibbs: 99% (best)Swift: 91%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGibbs: RB1 (best)Swift: RB4
Yards linerushingGibbs: 84.5Swift: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.