Goedert
TE · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET
Projected points11.2ptsUsage estimate
Ferguson
TE · DAL vs ARI
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points5.2pts
Start
Bench
Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Dallas Goedert over Jake Ferguson.
- Ahead by
- +6.0pts
- over Ferguson
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 82%
- of leagues
Goedert's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Dallas Goedert or a bigger role for Jake Ferguson.
Highlights
GoedertStartTE · PHI @ WASUsually 13.8−2.7pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- 18.0ceilingHis best weeks reach about 18.0 points.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
FergusonFirst outTE · DAL vs ARIUsually 6.4−1.2pts this week
Helps him
- 30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- −0.9ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.4.
- 9%targetsHe draws only 9% of his team’s targets.
- 3.6per gameHe sees only 3.6 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGoedert: 11.2 (best)Ferguson: 5.2
TD pointsof the projectionGoedert: Our estimateFerguson: 2.2
Expected TDsthis weekGoedert: Our estimateFerguson: 0.37
Projected team pointsGoedert: 17.0Ferguson: 30.8 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameGoedert: 0.6Ferguson: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareGoedert: 69% (best)Ferguson: 67%
Usage worthptsGoedert: 9.8 (best)Ferguson: 6.1
Target shareGoedert: 18% (best)Ferguson: 9%
Targets / gameGoedert: 6.2 (best)Ferguson: 3.6
Air yards shareGoedert: 13% (best)Ferguson: 6%
Vacated targets this weekGoedert: 0.0Ferguson: 0.0
RZ target shareGoedert: 30% (best)Ferguson: 12%
Inside 10 target shareGoedert: 0%Ferguson: 20% (best)
Catch rateGoedert: 71% (best)Ferguson: 68%
SeparationGoedert: 2.9 ydsFerguson: 3.8 yds (best)
YAC over expectedGoedert: +1.0 (best)Ferguson: −0.2
Usage worth vs scoredGoedert: Earned by usage 9.8Scored 11.4Ferguson: Earned by usage 6.1Scored 6.4
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsGoedert: AboveFerguson: Above
WOPRGoedert: 0.37 (best)Ferguson: 0.18
Range
FloorGoedert: 7.1 (best)Ferguson: 2.6
CeilingGoedert: 18.0 (best)Ferguson: 8.7
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGoedert: 21%Ferguson: 40%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Goedert: 20% (best)Ferguson: 9%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterGoedert: 20% (best)Ferguson: 58%
SteadinessGoedert: Up & down (best)±8.0 pts · 5 gamesFerguson: Up & down±5.7 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGoedert: A+ (best)2026, 6 gmFerguson: B+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptGoedert: Expected to trailFerguson: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGoedert: 1.3Ferguson: 1.1 (best)
Defense funnelGoedert: NeutralFerguson: Pass
Opp pass yds allowedGoedert: 28th (soft) (best)Ferguson: 21st (average)
Starting QBGoedert: McKee (Active)Ferguson: Prescott (Active)
Opp defender outGoedert: Kinlaw (DT)Ferguson: None listed
Roof / surfaceGoedert: OpengrassFerguson: Retractable roofturf
Rest / scheduleGoedert: NormalFerguson: Normal
Opp paceGoedert: 12th (average)Ferguson: 2nd (fast) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameGoedert: 0.514th (average)Ferguson: 0.6 (best)18th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedGoedert: 76%23rd (soft)Ferguson: 78% (best)29th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgGoedert: 10.6 (best)Ferguson: 2.7
Last 5 avgGoedert: 11.4 (best)Ferguson: 4.3
vs seasonGoedert: −0.8 (Cooling) (best)Ferguson: −3.6 (Cooling)
Yards per route runGoedert: 2.04 (best)Ferguson: 0.64
Receiving aDOTGoedert: 5.5Ferguson: 5.0
Target share trendGoedert: SteadyFerguson: Cooling
Crowd
Started in leaguesGoedert: 82%Ferguson: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGoedert: TE5 (best)Ferguson: TE32
Yards linereceivingGoedert: Our estimateFerguson: 14.5
Deciding on someone else?
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