Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
Schultz
TE · HOU vs DAL
Proj pts
13.6pts
market
Dalton Schultz or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean T.J. Hockenson over Dalton Schultz by 0.2. T.J. Hockenson leads at 13.8. Dalton Schultz is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 62% of managers started Schultz.
Availability & news
Dalton SchultzPractice: Limited
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
- Spike upside18.9 ceiling
Pros
- Spike upside19.1 ceiling
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Hockenson 7.5, Schultz 13.2.
Schultz is listed: Practice: Limited.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1, Schultz 6 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 13.8, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 13.8 points on a 5.1–18.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE), Spike upside (18.9 ceiling).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (13.8 vs 13.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C-); Bust rate (20% vs 24%); Snap share (78% vs 71%); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 10%).
Why Dalton Schultz
Sit Dalton Schultz — projects 13.6, an even matchup vs DAL.
Dalton Schultz projects 13.6 points on a 5.8–19.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 6.2. Net: bench Dalton Schultz this week.
Working for Schultz: Spike upside (19.1 ceiling).
Where Schultz leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.8 vs 5.1); Ceiling (19.1 vs 18.9); Target share (19% vs 16%); Implied team total (25.8 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (13.2 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (11.1 vs 6.9); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Boom rate (18% vs 13%); Targets / game (6.2 vs 4.4); Red zone targets (14 vs 11).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Dalton Schultz's last 5 games: PPR points 4.9, 11.3, 7.5, 26, 6 (oldest to newest).
Hockenson has already beaten Schultz's 13.6 projection in 0 of his 5; Schultz has beaten Hockenson's 13.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Dalton Schultz (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 0.2 points (13.8 to 13.6). Schultz's ceiling (19.1) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Schultz flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Schultz's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Dalton Schultz comparisons
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Dalton Schultz or Harold Fannin Jr.13.6 · 13.2
- Dalton Schultz or Tucker Kraft13.6 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Sam LaPorta13.6 · 14.9
More T.J. Hockenson comparisons
- Kenyon Sadiq or T.J. Hockenson13.5 · 13.8
- Harold Fannin Jr. or T.J. Hockenson13.2 · 13.8
- Sam LaPorta or T.J. Hockenson14.9 · 13.8
- T.J. Hockenson or Travis Kelce13.8 · 15.1
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.4 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)