Kelce
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
15.1pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
T.J. Hockenson or Travis Kelce: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Travis Kelce. Bench T.J. Hockenson. Travis Kelce leads at 15.1. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 1.2 short.
Crowd: 92% of managers started Kelce.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage20% target share
- Spike upside15.3 ceiling
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D- vs TE
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
- Spike upside18.9 ceiling
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Kelce 16.4, Hockenson 7.5.
Latest game on the card: Kelce 13.9, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Travis Kelce
Start Travis Kelce — projects 15.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Travis Kelce projects 15.1 points on a 7.1–15.3 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 6.4. Net: start Travis Kelce this week.
Working for Kelce: Alpha TE usage (20% target share), Spike upside (15.3 ceiling).
Working against Kelce: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs TE).
Where Kelce leads the head-to-head: Projection (15.1 vs 13.8); Floor (7.1 vs 5.1); Target share (20% vs 16%); Implied team total (26.0 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (16.4 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (12.4 vs 6.9); vs season (+1.9 vs -0.2); Boom rate (18% vs 13%); Bust rate (18% vs 20%); Targets / game (6.4 vs 4.4); Snap share (82% vs 78%); Red zone targets (13 vs 11).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 13.8, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 13.8 points on a 5.1–18.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE), Spike upside (18.9 ceiling).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (18.9 vs 15.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D-); Consistency (48% vs 46%); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 15%).
Recent form
Travis Kelce's last 5 games: PPR points 8.6, 4.2, 10.1, 25.1, 13.9 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Kelce has already beaten Hockenson's 13.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Hockenson has beaten Kelce's 15.1 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Travis Kelce (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Kelce's edge is 1.3 points (15.1 to 13.8). Hockenson's ceiling (18.9) clears Kelce's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Kelce's floor (7.1) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Kelce flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More T.J. Hockenson comparisons
- Dalton Schultz or T.J. Hockenson13.6 · 13.8
- Kenyon Sadiq or T.J. Hockenson13.5 · 13.8
- Harold Fannin Jr. or T.J. Hockenson13.2 · 13.8
- Sam LaPorta or T.J. Hockenson14.9 · 13.8
More Travis Kelce comparisons
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Dalton Kincaid or Travis Kelce15.6 · 15.1
- Travis Kelce or Tyler Warren15.1 · 16.3
- Dalton Schultz or Travis Kelce13.6 · 15.1
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.4 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)