Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Dulcich
TE · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
8.7pts
market
Darren Waller or Greg Dulcich: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Darren Waller over Greg Dulcich by 0.9. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Greg Dulcich is the first one out, 0.9 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Cons
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
- Low team total14.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Waller 41%, Dulcich 9%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1, Dulcich 10.5 (PPR points).
Why Darren Waller
Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 8.7); Ceiling (15.4 vs 9.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D); Implied team total (23.5 vs 14.0); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 6.0); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 6.3); vs season (-0.3 vs -0.9); Boom rate (33% vs 11%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.7); Snap share (45% vs 44%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 9%).
Why Greg Dulcich
Sit Greg Dulcich — projects 8.7, a tough matchup vs MIN.
Greg Dulcich projects 8.7 points on a 4.9–9.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: bench Greg Dulcich this week.
Working against Dulcich: Thin volume (3.7 targets/g), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Dulcich leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.9 vs 4.2); Consistency (47% vs 15%); Bust rate (11% vs 33%).
Recent form
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Greg Dulcich's last 4 games: PPR points 7.1, 3.8, 3.7, 10.5 (oldest to newest).
Waller has already beaten Dulcich's 8.7 projection in 2 of his 5; Dulcich has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 1 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Greg Dulcich (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
What flips it
Waller's edge is 0.9 points (9.6 to 8.7). Dulcich's ceiling (9.8) clears Waller's projection, so a big game from Dulcich flips it. Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Dulcich's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)